Here's Why We Think Arise's (STO:ARISE) Statutory Earnings Might Be Conservative

Broadly speaking, profitable businesses are less risky than unprofitable ones. That said, the current statutory profit is not always a good guide to a company's underlying profitability. In this article, we'll look at how useful this year's statutory profit is, when analysing Arise (STO:ARISE).

We like the fact that Arise made a profit of kr32.0m on its revenue of kr351.0m, in the last year. The chart below shows that while revenue has fallen over the last three years, the company has moved from unprofitable to profitable.

View our latest analysis for Arise

Not all profits are equal, and we can learn more about the nature of a company's past profitability by diving deeper into the financial statements. So this article aims to better understand Arise's underlying earnings power by taking a look at how dilution, and unusual items are impacting it, and considering how well those paper profits are being converted into cash flow. That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

A Closer Look At Arise's Earnings

In high finance, the key ratio used to measure how well a company converts reported profits into free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio (from cashflow). In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.

Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.

For the year to September 2020, Arise had an accrual ratio of -0.12. That implies it has good cash conversion, and implies that its free cash flow solidly exceeded its profit last year. In fact, it had free cash flow of kr180m in the last year, which was a lot more than its statutory profit of kr32.0m. Arise's free cash flow improved over the last year, which is generally good to see. However, that's not the end of the story. We must also consider the impact of unusual items on statutory profit (and thus the accrual ratio), as well as note the ramifications of the company issuing new shares.

One essential aspect of assessing earnings quality is to look at how much a company is diluting shareholders. In fact, Arise increased the number of shares on issue by 9.8% over the last twelve months by issuing new shares. That means its earnings are split among a greater number of shares. To celebrate net income while ignoring dilution is like rejoicing because you have a single slice of a larger pizza, but ignoring the fact that the pizza is now cut into many more slices. Check out Arise's historical EPS growth by clicking on this link.

A Look At The Impact Of Arise's Dilution on Its Earnings Per Share (EPS).

Arise was losing money three years ago. And even focusing only on the last twelve months, we don't have a meaningful growth rate because it made a loss a year ago, too. What we do know is that while it's great to see a profit over the last twelve months, that profit would have been better, on a per share basis, if the company hadn't needed to issue shares. So you can see that the dilution has had a bit of an impact on shareholders. Therefore, the dilution is having a noteworthy influence on shareholder returns. And so, you can see quite clearly that dilution is influencing shareholder earnings.

If Arise's EPS can grow over time then that drastically improves the chances of the share price moving in the same direction. However, if its profit increases while its earnings per share stay flat (or even fall) then shareholders might not see much benefit. For that reason, you could say that EPS is more important that net income in the long run, assuming the goal is to assess whether a company's share price might grow.

How Do Unusual Items Influence Profit?

Arise's profit was reduced by unusual items worth kr270m in the last twelve months, and this helped it produce high cash conversion, as reflected by its unusual items. This is what you'd expect to see where a company has a non-cash charge reducing paper profits. While deductions due to unusual items are disappointing in the first instance, there is a silver lining. We looked at thousands of listed companies and found that unusual items are very often one-off in nature. And that's hardly a surprise given these line items are considered unusual. Arise took a rather significant hit from unusual items in the year to September 2020. As a result, we can surmise that the unusual items made its statutory profit significantly weaker than it would otherwise be.

Our Take On Arise's Profit Performance

Summing up, Arise's accrual ratio and its unusual items suggest that its statutory earnings were temporarily depressed (and could bounce back), while the dilution is a negative for shareholders. Looking at all these factors, we'd say that Arise's underlying earnings power is at least as good as the statutory numbers would make it seem. If you'd like to know more about Arise as a business, it's important to be aware of any risks it's facing. To that end, you should learn about the 4 warning signs we've spotted with Arise (including 1 which makes us a bit uncomfortable).

After our examination into the nature of Arise's profit, we've come away optimistic for the company. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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