Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. As with many other companies Railcare Group AB (publ) (STO:RAIL) makes use of debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
When Is Debt A Problem?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
See our latest analysis for Railcare Group
What Is Railcare Group's Net Debt?
As you can see below, Railcare Group had kr164.8m of debt, at December 2022, which is about the same as the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. However, it also had kr32.0m in cash, and so its net debt is kr132.8m.
How Healthy Is Railcare Group's Balance Sheet?
According to the last reported balance sheet, Railcare Group had liabilities of kr150.5m due within 12 months, and liabilities of kr198.2m due beyond 12 months. On the other hand, it had cash of kr32.0m and kr65.6m worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling kr251.2m more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
Railcare Group has a market capitalization of kr459.8m, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. However, it is still worthwhile taking a close look at its ability to pay off debt.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
With net debt sitting at just 1.4 times EBITDA, Railcare Group is arguably pretty conservatively geared. And it boasts interest cover of 9.6 times, which is more than adequate. While Railcare Group doesn't seem to have gained much on the EBIT line, at least earnings remain stable for now. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Railcare Group can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, Railcare Group recorded free cash flow worth 60% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.
Our View
Railcare Group's interest cover was a real positive on this analysis, as was its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow. Having said that, its level of total liabilities somewhat sensitizes us to potential future risks to the balance sheet. It's also worth noting that Railcare Group is in the Infrastructure industry, which is often considered to be quite defensive. Considering this range of data points, we think Railcare Group is in a good position to manage its debt levels. Having said that, the load is sufficiently heavy that we would recommend any shareholders keep a close eye on it. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example, we've discovered 3 warning signs for Railcare Group that you should be aware of before investing here.
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About OM:RAIL
Railcare Group
Provides railway maintenance services in the Sweden and the United Kingdom.
High growth potential with adequate balance sheet and pays a dividend.