Telia Company AB (publ) Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Last week saw the newest quarterly earnings release from Telia Company AB (publ) (STO:TELIA), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at kr0.13, some 65% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at kr20b. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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After the latest results, the consensus from Telia Company's ten analysts is for revenues of kr81.4b in 2025, which would reflect a definite 9.3% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to soar 30% to kr1.64. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of kr80.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr1.63 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

View our latest analysis for Telia Company

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of kr34.51, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Telia Company at kr41.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at kr29.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. One more thing stood out to us about these estimates, and it's the idea that Telia Company's decline is expected to accelerate, with revenues forecast to fall at an annualised rate of 12% to the end of 2025. This tops off a historical decline of 0.2% a year over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue shrink 0.4% per year. While this is interesting, Telia Company's, revenues are still expected to shrink next year, and at a faster rate than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. The consensus also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it is performing in line with expectations. Plus, our data suggests that Telia Company is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at kr34.51, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Telia Company. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Telia Company analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for Telia Company that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.