Revenue Beat: Thunderful Group AB Beat Analyst Estimates By 13%

It's been a good week for Thunderful Group AB (STO:THUNDR) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest first-quarter results, and the shares gained 8.6% to kr65.80. It was a mildly positive result, with revenues exceeding expectations at kr568m, while statutory earnings per share (EPS) of kr2.59 were in line with analyst forecasts. Following the result, the analyst has updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analyst has changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for Thunderful Group

Following last week's earnings report, Thunderful Group's lone analyst are forecasting 2021 revenues to be kr3.09b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to soar 22% to kr2.73. Before this earnings report, the analyst had been forecasting revenues of kr2.95b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr2.84 in 2021. So it's pretty clear consensus is mixed on Thunderful Group after the latest results; whilethe analyst lifted revenue numbers, they also administered a minor downgrade to per-share earnings expectations.

The consensus price target was unchanged at kr75.00, suggesting the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite some adjustments to profit and revenue forecasts.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that sales are expected to reverse, with a forecast 0.7% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2021. That is a notable change from historical growth of 787% over the last year. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 7.7% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Thunderful Group's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analyst reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Thunderful Group. Fortunately, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, although our data indicates sales are expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at kr75.00, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price target.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2023, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Thunderful Group , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

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