Stock Analysis

Hanza AB (publ) Just Missed EPS By 14%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

OM:HANZA
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Hanza AB (publ) (STO:HANZA) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 5.7% to kr76.35 in the week after its latest annual results. Revenues were in line with forecasts, at kr4.9b, although statutory earnings per share came in 14% below what the analysts expected, at kr2.54 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Hanza

earnings-and-revenue-growth
OM:HANZA Earnings and Revenue Growth February 14th 2025

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Hanza's five analysts is for revenues of kr5.98b in 2025. This would reflect a major 23% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to bounce 141% to kr6.13. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of kr5.94b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr6.32 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at kr84.75, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Hanza analyst has a price target of kr100.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at kr77.00. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Hanza is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2025 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 23% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 19% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 7.9% annually. So although Hanza is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Hanza. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Hanza analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for Hanza that you need to be mindful of.

Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

Discover if Hanza might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.