Alcadon Group (OM:ALCA) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of ALCA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

ALCA (SEK69.8) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (SEK140.6)

ALCA fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	2/6
Future Growth	4/6
Past Performance	3/6
Financial Health	5/6
Dividends	0/6

ALCA Stock Overview

Alcadon Group AB (publ) engages in the supply of data and telecommunications solutions in Sweden, Norway, Denmark, and Germany.

Rewards

Trading at 50.4% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 23.35% per year

Earnings grew by 40.6% over the past year

Risk Analysis

Shareholders have been diluted in the past year

Alcadon Group Competitors

Thunderful Group

OM:THUNDR

kr1.3b

DistIT

OM:DIST

kr717.5m

Christian Berner Tech Trade

OM:CBTT B

kr418.3m

Hanza

OM:HANZA

kr1.4b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Alcadon Group
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	kr69.80
52 Week High	kr127.00
52 Week Low	kr41.00
Beta	1.09
1 Month Change	-14.57%
3 Month Change	-16.41%
1 Year Change	61.57%
3 Year Change	151.99%
5 Year Change	78.52%
Change since IPO	197.02%

Recent News & Updates

Jun 24

Alcadon Group (STO:ALCA) Could Easily Take On More Debt

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says...

Shareholder Returns

	ALCA	SE Electronic	SE Market
7D	1.7%	-4.1%	-3.0%
1Y	61.6%	-20.1%	-24.9%

Return vs Industry: ALCA exceeded the Swedish Electronic industry which returned -19.6% over the past year.

Return vs Market: ALCA exceeded the Swedish Market which returned -24.3% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is ALCA's price volatile compared to industry and market?
ALCA volatility
ALCA Average Weekly Movement	7.2%
Electronic Industry Average Movement	7.8%
Market Average Movement	7.4%
10% most volatile stocks in SE Market	12.5%
10% least volatile stocks in SE Market	4.7%

Stable Share Price: ALCA is not significantly more volatile than the rest of Swedish stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 7% a week.

Volatility Over Time: ALCA's weekly volatility (7%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1988	95	Sonny Mirborn	https://www.alcadongroup.se

Alcadon Group AB (publ) engages in the supply of data and telecommunications solutions in Sweden, Norway, Denmark, and Germany. The company offers range of fiber and copper based solutions, as well as passive and active products; structured cabling systems for offices, industry, public municipality, and hospital buildings; multi-fiber push on systems and data center solutions; and active communications equipment, such as switches, routers, and wireless solutions. It also provides fiber networks/FTTx solutions, including fiber network solutions comprising FTTH/B/P and 5G solutions, and fiber solutions for energy companies, city networks, service providers, and other stakeholders; and new production and repairs, conversion, and extension works for residential networks, as well as solutions for residential communication and electricity.

Alcadon Group Fundamentals Summary

How do Alcadon Group's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
ALCA fundamental statistics
Market Cap	kr1.37b
Earnings (TTM)	kr47.00m
Revenue (TTM)	kr771.57m

29.1x

P/E Ratio

1.8x

P/S Ratio

Is ALCA overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
ALCA income statement (TTM)
Revenue	kr771.57m
Cost of Revenue	kr564.90m
Gross Profit	kr206.67m
Other Expenses	kr159.67m
Earnings	kr47.00m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	2.40
Gross Margin	26.78%
Net Profit Margin	6.09%
Debt/Equity Ratio	26.5%

How did ALCA perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

0.7%

Current Dividend Yield

20%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is ALCA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ALCA?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for ALCA. This is calculated by dividing ALCA's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is ALCA's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	kr1.37b

ALCA key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.8x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	20.5x
PEG Ratio	1.2x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ALCA's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

ALCA PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for ALCA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	17.3x
THUNDR Thunderful Group	10.5x	33.0%	kr1.3b
DIST DistIT	22.8x	47.0%	kr717.5m
CBTT B Christian Berner Tech Trade	19.9x	26.7%	kr418.3m
HANZA Hanza	15.8x	15.1%	kr1.4b
ALCA Alcadon Group	29.1x	23.4%	kr1.4b

Forward PE

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ALCA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (29.1x) compared to the peer average (17.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ALCA's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Electronic Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ALCA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (29.1x) compared to the Swedish Electronic industry average (25.9x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ALCA's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ALCA PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	29.1x
Fair PE Ratio	26.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ALCA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (29.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.2x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ALCA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ALCA (SEK69.8) is trading below our estimate of fair value (SEK140.6)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ALCA is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: ALCA is poor value based on its PEG Ratio (1.2x)

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Future Growth

How is Alcadon Group forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 1 analyst?

Future Growth Score

4/6

Future Growth Score 4/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

23.4%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: ALCA's forecast earnings growth (23.4% per year) is above the savings rate (0.4%).

Earnings vs Market: ALCA's earnings (23.4% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the Swedish market (9.6% per year).

High Growth Earnings: ALCA's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: ALCA's revenue (16.8% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the Swedish market (5.5% per year).

High Growth Revenue: ALCA's revenue (16.8% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: ALCA's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (16%).

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Past Performance

How has Alcadon Group performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

3/6

Past Performance Score 3/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

-0.9%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: ALCA has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: ALCA's current net profit margins (6.1%) are lower than last year (6.6%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: ALCA's earnings have declined by 0.9% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: ALCA's earnings growth over the past year (40.6%) exceeds its 5-year average (-0.9% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: ALCA earnings growth over the past year (40.6%) exceeded the Electronic industry 23.5%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: ALCA's Return on Equity (9.8%) is considered low.

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Financial Health

How is Alcadon Group's financial position?

Financial Health Score

5/6

Financial Health Score 5/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: ALCA's short term assets (SEK426.9M) exceed its short term liabilities (SEK185.3M).

Long Term Liabilities: ALCA's short term assets (SEK426.9M) exceed its long term liabilities (SEK152.9M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: ALCA has more cash than its total debt.

Reducing Debt: ALCA's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 149.9% to 26.5% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: ALCA's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (3.4%).

Interest Coverage: ALCA's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (17.8x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Alcadon Group current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

0.72%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: ALCA's dividend (0.72%) isn’t notable compared to the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the Swedish market (1.62%).

High Dividend: ALCA's dividend (0.72%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Swedish market (5.42%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: ALCA is not paying a notable dividend for the Swedish market, therefore no need to check if payments are stable.

Growing Dividend: ALCA is not paying a notable dividend for the Swedish market, therefore no need to check if payments are increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: ALCA is not paying a notable dividend for the Swedish market.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: ALCA is paying a dividend but the company has no free cash flows.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

3.3yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Sonny Mirborn (42 yo)

3yrs

Tenure

kr3,582,000

Compensation

Mr. Sonny Mirborn serves as Chief Executive Officer and President at Alcadon Group AB (publ). since July 11, 2019 and serves as its Chief Executive Officer of Alcadon AB.

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Insufficient data to establish whether Sonny's total compensation is reasonable compared to companies of similar size in the Swedish market.

Compensation vs Earnings: Sonny's compensation has increased by more than 20% in the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: ALCA's management team is considered experienced (3.3 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: ALCA's board of directors are considered experienced (5.3 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: ALCA insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 10%.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/07/04 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/07/04 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31