Avensia AB (publ)'s (STO:AVEN) Shares Bounce 25% But Its Business Still Trails The Industry

Avensia AB (publ) (STO:AVEN) shareholders are no doubt pleased to see that the share price has bounced 25% in the last month, although it is still struggling to make up recently lost ground. But the gains over the last month weren't enough to make shareholders whole, as the share price is still down 5.9% in the last twelve months.

Although its price has surged higher, Avensia may still be sending buy signals at present with its price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.8x, considering almost half of all companies in the Software industry in Sweden have P/S ratios greater than 1.7x and even P/S higher than 5x aren't out of the ordinary. However, the P/S might be low for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

Check out our latest analysis for Avensia

What Does Avensia's Recent Performance Look Like?

Avensia could be doing better as its revenue has been going backwards lately while most other companies have been seeing positive revenue growth. The P/S ratio is probably low because investors think this poor revenue performance isn't going to get any better. So while you could say the stock is cheap, investors will be looking for improvement before they see it as good value.

Want the full picture on analyst estimates for the company? Then our free report on Avensia will help you uncover what's on the horizon.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The Low P/S Ratio?

Avensia's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver limited growth, and importantly, perform worse than the industry.

In reviewing the last year of financials, we were disheartened to see the company's revenues fell to the tune of 4.1%. Regardless, revenue has managed to lift by a handy 28% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the earlier period of growth. Accordingly, while they would have preferred to keep the run going, shareholders would be roughly satisfied with the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the one analyst covering the company suggest revenue should grow by 3.9% per annum over the next three years. Meanwhile, the rest of the industry is forecast to expand by 18% per annum, which is noticeably more attractive.

In light of this, it's understandable that Avensia's P/S sits below the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are expecting to see limited future growth and are only willing to pay a reduced amount for the stock.

The Final Word

Despite Avensia's share price climbing recently, its P/S still lags most other companies. While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.

We've established that Avensia maintains its low P/S on the weakness of its forecast growth being lower than the wider industry, as expected. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in revenue isn't great enough to justify a higher P/S ratio. Unless these conditions improve, they will continue to form a barrier for the share price around these levels.

It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Avensia, and understanding should be part of your investment process.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So if growing profitability aligns with your idea of a great company, take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.