Purefun Group AB (publ)'s (STO:PURE) 25% Price Boost Is Out Of Tune With Earnings

Purefun Group AB (publ) (STO:PURE) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 25% gain and recovering from prior weakness. The bad news is that even after the stocks recovery in the last 30 days, shareholders are still underwater by about 8.6% over the last year.

In spite of the firm bounce in price, it's still not a stretch to say that Purefun Group's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 21.4x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the market in Sweden, where the median P/E ratio is around 22x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/E ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

Recent times have been quite advantageous for Purefun Group as its earnings have been rising very briskly. The P/E is probably moderate because investors think this strong earnings growth might not be enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

Check out our latest analysis for Purefun Group

Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on Purefun Group will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

Is There Some Growth For Purefun Group?

Purefun Group's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver moderate growth, and importantly, perform in line with the market.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 327% gain to the company's bottom line. However, this wasn't enough as the latest three year period has seen a very unpleasant 55% drop in EPS in aggregate. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

Comparing that to the market, which is predicted to deliver 21% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term earnings results is a sobering picture.

With this information, we find it concerning that Purefun Group is trading at a fairly similar P/E to the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh on the share price eventually.

The Key Takeaway

Its shares have lifted substantially and now Purefun Group's P/E is also back up to the market median. Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

We've established that Purefun Group currently trades on a higher than expected P/E since its recent earnings have been in decline over the medium-term. When we see earnings heading backwards and underperforming the market forecasts, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the moderate P/E lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve, it's challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

You need to take note of risks, for example - Purefun Group has 3 warning signs (and 1 which is concerning) we think you should know about.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.