Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We note that Footway Group AB (publ) (STO:FOOT B) does have debt on its balance sheet. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
View our latest analysis for Footway Group
What Is Footway Group's Net Debt?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at December 2020 Footway Group had debt of kr425.0m, up from kr190.1m in one year. However, it does have kr39.0m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about kr386.0m.
How Strong Is Footway Group's Balance Sheet?
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Footway Group had liabilities of kr642.7m due within 12 months and liabilities of kr93.8m due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had kr39.0m in cash and kr44.7m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities total kr652.8m more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
While this might seem like a lot, it is not so bad since Footway Group has a market capitalization of kr2.18b, and so it could probably strengthen its balance sheet by raising capital if it needed to. However, it is still worthwhile taking a close look at its ability to pay off debt.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
Footway Group shareholders face the double whammy of a high net debt to EBITDA ratio (34.5), and fairly weak interest coverage, since EBIT is just 0.22 times the interest expense. The debt burden here is substantial. Worse, Footway Group's EBIT was down 74% over the last year. If earnings continue to follow that trajectory, paying off that debt load will be harder than convincing us to run a marathon in the rain. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is Footway Group's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. During the last three years, Footway Group burned a lot of cash. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.
Our View
On the face of it, Footway Group's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow left us tentative about the stock, and its EBIT growth rate was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. But at least its level of total liabilities is not so bad. Overall, it seems to us that Footway Group's balance sheet is really quite a risk to the business. So we're almost as wary of this stock as a hungry kitten is about falling into its owner's fish pond: once bitten, twice shy, as they say. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Case in point: We've spotted 3 warning signs for Footway Group you should be aware of, and 2 of them are a bit unpleasant.
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
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About OM:FOOT B
Moderate and slightly overvalued.