AB Sagax (OM:SAGA A) - Share price, News & Analysis

SAGA A fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	1/6
Future Growth	1/6
Past Performance	4/6
Financial Health	2/6
Dividends	3/6

SAGA A Stock Overview

AB Sagax (publ) operates as a property company in Sweden, Finland, France, the Netherlands, Germany, and Spain.

Rewards

Price-To-Earnings ratio (9.2x) is below the Swedish market (15.8x)

Revenue is forecast to grow 14.9% per year

Earnings have grown 25% per year over the past 5 years

Risk Analysis

Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 16.7% per year for the next 3 years

Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow

Large one-off items impacting financial results

AB Sagax Competitors

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for AB Sagax
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	kr192.00
52 Week High	kr399.00
52 Week Low	kr187.50
Beta	0.55
1 Month Change	-30.94%
3 Month Change	-28.89%
1 Year Change	-27.00%
3 Year Change	113.33%
5 Year Change	269.23%
Change since IPO	-75.54%

Shareholder Returns

	SAGA A	SE Real Estate	SE Market
7D	-3.0%	-3.1%	-1.3%
1Y	-27.0%	-29.5%	-23.6%

Return vs Industry: SAGA A exceeded the Swedish Real Estate industry which returned -29.5% over the past year.

Return vs Market: SAGA A underperformed the Swedish Market which returned -23.6% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is SAGA A's price volatile compared to industry and market?
SAGA A volatility
SAGA A Average Weekly Movement	7.8%
Real Estate Industry Average Movement	5.8%
Market Average Movement	7.4%
10% most volatile stocks in SE Market	12.2%
10% least volatile stocks in SE Market	4.7%

Stable Share Price: SAGA A is not significantly more volatile than the rest of Swedish stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 8% a week.

Volatility Over Time: SAGA A's weekly volatility (8%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1995	89	David Mindus	https://www.sagax.se

AB Sagax (publ) operates as a property company in Sweden, Finland, France, the Netherlands, Germany, and Spain. The company invests in commercial properties primarily in the warehouse and light industry segment. As of December 31, 2021, its property portfolio consisted of 673 properties with a rental space of 3,759,000 square meters.

AB Sagax Fundamentals Summary

How do AB Sagax's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
SAGA A fundamental statistics
Market Cap	kr64.77b
Earnings (TTM)	kr9.23b
Revenue (TTM)	kr3.25b

9.2x

P/E Ratio

26.2x

P/S Ratio

Is SAGA A overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
SAGA A income statement (TTM)
Revenue	kr3.25b
Cost of Revenue	kr587.00m
Gross Profit	kr2.67b
Other Expenses	-kr6.56b
Earnings	kr9.23b

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

Jul 14, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)	20.79
Gross Margin	81.96%
Net Profit Margin	283.68%
Debt/Equity Ratio	85.3%

How did SAGA A perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

1.1%

Current Dividend Yield

10%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is SAGA A undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SAGA A?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for SAGA A. This is calculated by dividing SAGA A's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is SAGA A's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	kr64.77b

SAGA A key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	28.5x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	36.6x
PEG Ratio	-0.6x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does SAGA A's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

SAGA A PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for SAGA A vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	4.2x

Forward PE

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: SAGA A is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.2x) compared to the peer average (4.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does SAGA A's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Swedish Real Estate Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: SAGA A is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.2x) compared to the Swedish Real Estate industry average (4.3x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is SAGA A's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

SAGA A PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	9.2x
Fair PE Ratio	11.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: SAGA A is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.2x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of SAGA A when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: SAGA A (SEK192) is trading above our estimate of fair value (SEK76.41)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SAGA A is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: SAGA A's earnings are forecast to decline next year, so we can't calculate its PEG ratio.

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Future Growth

How is AB Sagax forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 3 analysts?

Future Growth Score

1/6

Future Growth Score 1/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

-16.7%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: SAGA A's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-16.7% per year).

Earnings vs Market: SAGA A's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-16.7% per year).

High Growth Earnings: SAGA A's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: SAGA A's revenue (14.9% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the Swedish market (5.6% per year).

High Growth Revenue: SAGA A's revenue (14.9% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: SAGA A's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (12.4%).

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Past Performance

How has AB Sagax performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

4/6

Past Performance Score 4/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

25.0%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: SAGA A has a large one-off gain of SEK5.1B impacting its March 31 2022 financial results.

Growing Profit Margin: SAGA A's current net profit margins are higher than last year .

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: SAGA A's earnings have grown significantly by 25% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: SAGA A's earnings growth over the past year (80%) exceeds its 5-year average (25% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: SAGA A earnings growth over the past year (80%) underperformed the Real Estate industry 109.3%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: SAGA A's Return on Equity (28.2%) is considered high.

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Financial Health

How is AB Sagax's financial position?

Financial Health Score

2/6

Financial Health Score 2/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: SAGA A's short term assets (SEK1.2B) do not cover its short term liabilities (SEK2.5B).

Long Term Liabilities: SAGA A's short term assets (SEK1.2B) do not cover its long term liabilities (SEK30.5B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: SAGA A's net debt to equity ratio (84%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: SAGA A's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 142.8% to 85.3% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: SAGA A's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (10.1%).

Interest Coverage: SAGA A's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (8.9x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is AB Sagax current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

2/6

Dividend Score 2/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

1.12%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: SAGA A's dividend (1.12%) isn’t notable compared to the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the Swedish market (1.67%).

High Dividend: SAGA A's dividend (1.12%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Swedish market (5.41%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: SAGA A's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: SAGA A's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its low payout ratio (10.3%), SAGA A's dividend payments are thoroughly covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its reasonably low cash payout ratio (34.3%), SAGA A's dividend payments are well covered by cash flows.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

7.4yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

David Mindus (49 yo)

18.42yrs

Tenure

Mr. David Mindus has been the Chief Executive Director and Director of AB Sagax (publ) since 2004. Mr. Mindus serves as Director of Torslanda Property Investment AB (publ) since 2019. Mr. Mindus has built...

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: SAGA A's management team is seasoned and experienced (7.4 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: SAGA A's board of directors are seasoned and experienced ( 16.9 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/06/26 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/06/23 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31