Is Nyfosa (STO:NYF) A Risky Investment?

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. Importantly, Nyfosa AB (publ) (STO:NYF) does carry debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.

Check out our latest analysis for Nyfosa

How Much Debt Does Nyfosa Carry?

As you can see below, Nyfosa had kr22.9b of debt at September 2024, down from kr24.7b a year prior. On the flip side, it has kr782.0m in cash leading to net debt of about kr22.1b.

How Healthy Is Nyfosa's Balance Sheet?

The latest balance sheet data shows that Nyfosa had liabilities of kr3.68b due within a year, and liabilities of kr22.6b falling due after that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of kr782.0m as well as receivables valued at kr439.0m due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling kr25.1b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

Given this deficit is actually higher than the company's market capitalization of kr23.7b, we think shareholders really should watch Nyfosa's debt levels, like a parent watching their child ride a bike for the first time. Hypothetically, extremely heavy dilution would be required if the company were forced to pay down its liabilities by raising capital at the current share price.

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

Weak interest cover of 2.0 times and a disturbingly high net debt to EBITDA ratio of 8.7 hit our confidence in Nyfosa like a one-two punch to the gut. This means we'd consider it to have a heavy debt load. More concerning, Nyfosa saw its EBIT drop by 3.2% in the last twelve months. If it keeps going like that paying off its debt will be like running on a treadmill -- a lot of effort for not much advancement. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Nyfosa can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. During the last three years, Nyfosa produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 63% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.

Our View

On the face of it, Nyfosa's interest cover left us tentative about the stock, and its net debt to EBITDA was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. But at least it's pretty decent at converting EBIT to free cash flow; that's encouraging. Overall, we think it's fair to say that Nyfosa has enough debt that there are some real risks around the balance sheet. If all goes well, that should boost returns, but on the flip side, the risk of permanent capital loss is elevated by the debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Nyfosa that you should be aware of before investing here.

If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.