Cantargia AB (publ) Just Reported A Surprise Profit And Analysts Updated Their Estimates

It's been a mediocre week for Cantargia AB (publ) (STO:CANTA) shareholders, with the stock dropping 12% to kr3.17 in the week since its latest quarterly results. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the three analysts covering Cantargia provided consensus estimates of kr5.87m revenue in 2026, which would reflect a stressful 98% decline over the past 12 months. Earnings are expected to tip over into lossmaking territory, with the analysts forecasting statutory losses of -kr1.42 per share in 2026. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of kr5.80m and losses of kr1.43 per share in 2026.

See our latest analysis for Cantargia

The consensus price target rose 58% to kr8.67, with the analysts increasing their valuations as the business executes in line with forecasts. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Cantargia analyst has a price target of kr14.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at kr5.00. We would probably assign less value to the analyst forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 96% by the end of 2026. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 109% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 11% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Cantargia is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Cantargia's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Cantargia analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 4 warning signs for Cantargia you should be aware of, and 3 of them are a bit unpleasant.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.