Need To Know: The Consensus Just Cut Its BioArctic AB (publ) (STO:BIOA B) Estimates For 2024

The analysts covering BioArctic AB (publ) (STO:BIOA B) delivered a dose of negativity to shareholders today, by making a substantial revision to their statutory forecasts for this year. This report focused on revenue estimates, and it looks as though the consensus view of the business has become substantially more conservative.

Following the downgrade, the latest consensus from BioArctic's six analysts is for revenues of kr446m in 2024, which would reflect a major 77% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 48% to kr0.72 per share. Yet prior to the latest estimates, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of kr496m and losses of kr0.13 per share in 2024. Ergo, there's been a clear change in sentiment, with the analysts administering a notable cut to this year's revenue estimates, while at the same time increasing their loss per share forecasts.

See our latest analysis for BioArctic

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. For example, we noticed that BioArctic's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 114% growth to the end of 2024 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 4.5% a year over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 17% annually. Not only are BioArctic's revenues expected to improve, it seems that the analysts are also expecting it to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that analysts increased their loss per share estimates for this year. While analysts did downgrade their revenue estimates, these forecasts still imply revenues will perform better than the wider market. Given the stark change in sentiment, we'd understand if investors became more cautious on BioArctic after today.

Even so, the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for the value creation of shareholders. We have estimates - from multiple BioArctic analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks with high insider ownership.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.