Holmen AB (publ) Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Holmen AB (publ) (STO:HOLM B) last week reported its latest quarterly results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. Revenues of kr5.3b fell slightly short of expectations, but earnings were a definite bright spot, with statutory per-share profits of kr6.10 an impressive 68% ahead of estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Following last week's earnings report, Holmen's eight analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be kr23.2b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be kr18.25, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of kr23.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr19.22 in 2026. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a minor downgrade to earnings per share estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for Holmen

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the kr378 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Holmen, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at kr476 and the most bearish at kr300 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 0.6% annualised decline to the end of 2026. That is a notable change from historical growth of 6.6% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 3.0% per year. It's pretty clear that Holmen's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at kr378, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Holmen going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Holmen (of which 1 is a bit unpleasant!) you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.