Revenue Beat: AAK AB (publ.) Beat Analyst Estimates By 8.9%

It's been a good week for AAK AB (publ.) (STO:AAK) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 6.2% to kr259. Results overall were respectable, with statutory earnings of kr13.62 per share roughly in line with what the analysts had forecast. Revenues of kr11b came in 8.9% ahead of analyst predictions. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Following last week's earnings report, AAK AB (publ.)'s seven analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be kr46.5b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to increase 3.2% to kr13.39. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of kr44.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr13.23 in 2025. There doesn't appear to have been a major change in sentiment following the results, other than the small lift in revenue estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for AAK AB (publ.)

It may not be a surprise to see thatthe analysts have reconfirmed their price target of kr311, implying that the uplift in revenue is not expected to greatly contribute to AAK AB (publ.)'s valuation in the near term. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on AAK AB (publ.), with the most bullish analyst valuing it at kr380 and the most bearish at kr245 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that AAK AB (publ.)'s revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 2.5% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 10% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 1.2% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while AAK AB (publ.)'s revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on AAK AB (publ.). Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple AAK AB (publ.) analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for AAK AB (publ.) you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.