Africa Oil Valuation
Is AOI undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
4/6Valuation Score 4/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Book vs Peers
Price-To-Book vs Industry
Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of AOI when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: AOI (SEK15.3) is trading below our estimate of fair value (SEK29.05)
Significantly Below Fair Value: AOI is trading below fair value by more than 20%.
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AOI?
Key metric: As AOI is unprofitable and pre-revenue we use its Price-To-Book Ratio for relative valuation analysis.
| What is AOI's PB Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| PB Ratio | 1.1x |
| Book | US$548.70m |
| Market Cap | US$631.09m |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | -2.2x |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | -2.4x |
| PEG Ratio | n/a |
Price to Book Ratio vs Peers
How does AOI's PB Ratio compare to its peers?
| Company | Forward PB | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 1.3x | ||
MAHA A Maha Energy | 0.7x | 53.8% | SEK 1.1b |
TETY Tethys Oil | 0.6x | 43.4% | SEK 1.8b |
COI Comet Ridge | 2.5x | 30.5% | AU$188.8m |
FO Falcon Oil & Gas | 1.5x | n/a | CA$94.3m |
AOI Africa Oil | 1.1x | 67.3% | SEK 881.3m |
Price-To-Book vs Peers: AOI is good value based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (1.1x) compared to the peer average (1.4x).
Price to Book Ratio vs Industry
How does AOI's PB Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Oil and Gas Industry?
| 13 Companies | Price / Book | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Companies | Estimated Growth | Market Cap | |
|---|---|---|---|
Price-To-Book vs Industry: AOI is expensive based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (1.1x) compared to the European Oil and Gas industry average (0.9x).
Price to Book Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is AOI's PB Ratio compared to its Fair PB Ratio? This is the expected PB Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PB Ratio | 1.1x |
| Fair PB Ratio | n/a |
Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate AOI's Price-To-Book Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
| Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | SEK 15.30 | SEK 24.08 +57.4% | 8.5% | SEK 26.90 | SEK 21.66 | n/a | 4 |
| Nov ’25 | SEK 13.85 | SEK 23.37 +68.7% | 8.6% | SEK 26.04 | SEK 21.02 | n/a | 4 |
| Oct ’25 | SEK 13.53 | SEK 24.63 +82.0% | 8.7% | SEK 26.36 | SEK 21.05 | n/a | 4 |
| Sep ’25 | SEK 15.40 | SEK 24.49 +59.0% | 8.8% | SEK 26.38 | SEK 20.88 | n/a | 4 |
| Aug ’25 | SEK 17.96 | SEK 25.48 +41.9% | 8.5% | SEK 27.17 | SEK 21.82 | n/a | 4 |
| Jul ’25 | SEK 19.02 | SEK 25.50 +34.1% | 8.5% | SEK 27.21 | SEK 21.84 | n/a | 4 |
| Jun ’25 | SEK 19.40 | SEK 25.25 +30.2% | 9.3% | SEK 27.54 | SEK 22.04 | n/a | 3 |
| May ’25 | SEK 20.22 | SEK 25.61 +26.7% | 9.1% | SEK 27.82 | SEK 22.41 | n/a | 3 |
| Apr ’25 | SEK 18.92 | SEK 24.66 +30.3% | 9.4% | SEK 26.98 | SEK 21.49 | n/a | 3 |
| Mar ’25 | SEK 16.05 | SEK 24.28 +51.3% | 9.5% | SEK 26.61 | SEK 21.16 | n/a | 3 |
| Feb ’25 | SEK 19.81 | SEK 24.67 +24.5% | 9.5% | SEK 27.04 | SEK 21.50 | n/a | 3 |
| Jan ’25 | SEK 18.97 | SEK 25.85 +36.3% | 13.4% | SEK 28.70 | SEK 20.98 | n/a | 3 |
| Dec ’24 | SEK 19.60 | SEK 25.34 +29.3% | 14.3% | SEK 28.97 | SEK 21.71 | n/a | 2 |
| Nov ’24 | SEK 20.90 | SEK 26.23 +25.5% | 14.4% | SEK 30.00 | SEK 22.45 | SEK 13.85 | 2 |
| Oct ’24 | SEK 22.36 | SEK 26.42 +18.2% | 14.9% | SEK 30.36 | SEK 22.48 | SEK 13.53 | 2 |
| Sep ’24 | SEK 26.00 | SEK 26.40 +1.5% | 14.8% | SEK 30.32 | SEK 22.48 | SEK 15.40 | 2 |
| Aug ’24 | SEK 24.65 | SEK 25.12 +1.9% | 16.1% | SEK 29.17 | SEK 21.07 | SEK 17.96 | 2 |
| Jul ’24 | SEK 22.60 | SEK 25.32 +12.0% | 12.8% | SEK 28.56 | SEK 22.08 | SEK 19.02 | 2 |
| Jun ’24 | SEK 23.19 | SEK 25.08 +8.1% | 11.2% | SEK 27.88 | SEK 22.27 | SEK 19.40 | 2 |
| May ’24 | SEK 20.25 | SEK 23.98 +18.4% | 11.3% | SEK 26.69 | SEK 21.26 | SEK 20.22 | 2 |
| Apr ’24 | SEK 23.16 | SEK 23.74 +2.5% | 10.7% | SEK 26.27 | SEK 21.21 | SEK 18.92 | 2 |
| Mar ’24 | SEK 20.98 | SEK 23.20 +10.6% | 7.4% | SEK 24.91 | SEK 21.48 | SEK 16.05 | 2 |
| Feb ’24 | SEK 21.00 | SEK 23.00 +9.5% | 8.3% | SEK 24.90 | SEK 21.09 | SEK 19.81 | 2 |
| Jan ’24 | SEK 19.11 | SEK 24.17 +26.5% | 11.3% | SEK 26.90 | SEK 21.44 | SEK 18.97 | 2 |
| Dec ’23 | SEK 22.42 | SEK 24.60 +9.7% | 12.3% | SEK 27.62 | SEK 21.57 | SEK 19.60 | 2 |
| Nov ’23 | SEK 27.06 | SEK 25.54 -5.6% | 11.0% | SEK 28.35 | SEK 22.73 | SEK 20.90 | 2 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.
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