Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. Importantly, Oscar Properties Holding AB (publ) (STO:OP) does carry debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
See our latest analysis for Oscar Properties Holding
How Much Debt Does Oscar Properties Holding Carry?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at March 2022 Oscar Properties Holding had debt of kr5.00b, up from kr1.94b in one year. And it doesn't have much cash, so its net debt is about the same.
How Strong Is Oscar Properties Holding's Balance Sheet?
According to the last reported balance sheet, Oscar Properties Holding had liabilities of kr579.0m due within 12 months, and liabilities of kr4.97b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of kr86.1m as well as receivables valued at kr249.0m due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by kr5.22b.
The deficiency here weighs heavily on the kr514.2m company itself, as if a child were struggling under the weight of an enormous back-pack full of books, his sports gear, and a trumpet. So we'd watch its balance sheet closely, without a doubt. After all, Oscar Properties Holding would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
Weak interest cover of 0.51 times and a disturbingly high net debt to EBITDA ratio of 45.1 hit our confidence in Oscar Properties Holding like a one-two punch to the gut. The debt burden here is substantial. However, the silver lining was that Oscar Properties Holding achieved a positive EBIT of kr99m in the last twelve months, an improvement on the prior year's loss. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Oscar Properties Holding's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So it is important to check how much of its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) converts to actual free cash flow. During the last year, Oscar Properties Holding burned a lot of cash. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.
Our View
On the face of it, Oscar Properties Holding's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow left us tentative about the stock, and its level of total liabilities was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. Having said that, its ability to grow its EBIT isn't such a worry. We think the chances that Oscar Properties Holding has too much debt a very significant. To our minds, that means the stock is rather high risk, and probably one to avoid; but to each their own (investing) style. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Be aware that Oscar Properties Holding is showing 6 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 3 of those can't be ignored...
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About OM:OP
Oscar Properties Holding
Oscar Properties Holding AB (publ) purchases, develops, manages, and sells real estate properties in Stockholm.
Moderate and slightly overvalued.