MilDef Group (OM:MILDEF): Valuation Insights Following Strong Q3 Results and New Production Facility Launch

MilDef Group (OM:MILDEF) has drawn attention with its latest third quarter earnings, which saw revenues and net income climb sharply from last year. Investors are also watching the company’s newly opened production facility outside Stockholm, a development that signals a major step up in capacity and ambition.

See our latest analysis for MilDef Group.

MilDef’s shares have shown remarkable momentum this year, with a year-to-date share price return of 25.7% and an impressive 68.2% total shareholder return over the past year. The excitement around the new Bastionen facility and consistently stronger quarters has boosted long-term confidence. However, the stock has paused for breath in recent weeks.

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The big question now is whether MilDef’s strong run and clear growth opportunities are fully reflected in the current share price, or if there is still a genuine buying opportunity before the market prices in future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 41% Undervalued

With MilDef's shares last closing at SEK157.6 and the most widely cited narrative estimating fair value at SEK267.5, the price target points to significant upside. This large gap grabs attention, especially as consensus expectations tighten behind future growth and operating expansion.

The surge in order intake (up 116% YoY, with 58% organic growth) and the record SEK 3.2 billion order backlog, supported by increased NATO/EU defense budgets and mandates for higher spending, strongly position MilDef for top-line revenue acceleration over the next several years.

Read the complete narrative.

What if MilDef’s revenue engine is only just getting started? The narrative behind this fair value centers on explosive order momentum and bold assumptions for future profit margins and contract wins. Discover the full story and see which surprising numbers drive the forecasted upside.

Result: Fair Value of $267.5 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, the pace of MilDef’s expansion could bring execution risks, such as delays in large European contracts or increased complexity from rapid integration efforts.

Find out about the key risks to this MilDef Group narrative.

Build Your Own MilDef Group Narrative

Keep in mind, if you want to dig into the details yourself or have a different perspective, it takes just minutes to create your own narrative: Do it your way

A great starting point for your MilDef Group research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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