Lindab International AB (publ) Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

There's been a notable change in appetite for Lindab International AB (publ) (STO:LIAB) shares in the week since its third-quarter report, with the stock down 20% to kr216. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at kr2.05, some 32% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at kr3.3b. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Lindab International

After the latest results, the three analysts covering Lindab International are now predicting revenues of kr14.3b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a reasonable 7.9% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to surge 54% to kr13.52. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of kr14.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr14.95 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target fell 5.7% to kr261, with the analysts clearly linking lower forecast earnings to the performance of the stock price. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Lindab International analyst has a price target of kr291 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at kr240. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Lindab International's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that Lindab International's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 6.3% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 9.9% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 6.2% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Lindab International's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Lindab International. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Lindab International's future valuation.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Lindab International going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

It might also be worth considering whether Lindab International's debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools on the Simply Wall St platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.