Dometic Group AB (publ) Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on Dometic Group AB (publ) (STO:DOM), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its quarterly results last week. Dometic Group missed analyst forecasts, with revenues of kr6.3b and statutory earnings per share (EPS) of kr1.09, falling short by 5.5% and 8.8% respectively. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from seven analysts covering Dometic Group is for revenues of kr21.6b in 2025. This implies a small 4.1% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Dometic Group is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of kr2.46 per share. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of kr22.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr2.46 in 2025. So it looks like the analysts have become a bit less optimistic after the latest results announcement, with revenues expected to fall even as the company is supposed to maintain EPS.

Check out our latest analysis for Dometic Group

The analysts have also increased their price target 13% to kr53.83, clearly signalling that lower revenue forecasts next year are not expected to have a material impact on Dometic Group's valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Dometic Group at kr60.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at kr45.00. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 8.1% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 8.3% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 2.6% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Dometic Group's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Yet - earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Dometic Group going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 2 warning signs for Dometic Group that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.