Autoliv (OM:ALIV SDB) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of ALIV SDB when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

ALIV SDB (SEK744.6) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (SEK2055.97)

ALIV SDB fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	5/6
Future Growth	5/6
Past Performance	3/6
Financial Health	5/6
Dividends	3/6

ALIV SDB Stock Overview

Autoliv, Inc., through its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and supplies passive safety systems to the automotive industry in Europe, the Americas, China, Japan, and rest of Asia.

Rewards

Trading at 63.8% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 26.33% per year

Risk Analysis

Dividend of 3.52% is not well covered by earnings

Autoliv Competitors

Dometic Group

OM:DOM

kr19.5b

Bulten

OM:BULTEN

kr1.3b

Volvo Car AB (publ.)

OM:VOLCAR B

kr208.0b

Samvardhana Motherson International

BSE:517334

₹531.5b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Autoliv
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$744.60
52 Week High	US$981.60
52 Week Low	US$659.40
Beta	1.62
1 Month Change	-4.66%
3 Month Change	2.28%
1 Year Change	-11.25%
3 Year Change	17.19%
5 Year Change	-22.36%
Change since IPO	626.44%

Recent News & Updates

May 27

Do Autoliv's (STO:ALIV SDB) Earnings Warrant Your Attention?

Like a puppy chasing its tail, some new investors often chase 'the next big thing', even if that means buying 'story...

Shareholder Returns

	ALIV SDB	SE Auto Components	SE Market
7D	-0.05%	-1.3%	0.3%
1Y	-11.3%	-33.8%	-24.3%

Return vs Industry: ALIV SDB exceeded the Swedish Auto Components industry which returned -33.8% over the past year.

Return vs Market: ALIV SDB exceeded the Swedish Market which returned -24.3% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is ALIV SDB's price volatile compared to industry and market?
ALIV SDB volatility
ALIV SDB Average Weekly Movement	6.0%
Auto Components Industry Average Movement	5.9%
Market Average Movement	7.4%
10% most volatile stocks in SE Market	12.5%
10% least volatile stocks in SE Market	4.7%

Stable Share Price: ALIV SDB is not significantly more volatile than the rest of Swedish stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 6% a week.

Volatility Over Time: ALIV SDB's weekly volatility (6%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1953	58,709	Mikael Bratt	https://www.autoliv.com

Autoliv, Inc., through its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and supplies passive safety systems to the automotive industry in Europe, the Americas, China, Japan, and rest of Asia. It offers passive safety systems, including modules and components for frontal-impact airbag protection systems, side-impact airbag protection systems, seatbelts, steering wheels, inflator technologies, and battery cut-off switches, as well as anti-whiplash systems and pedestrian protection systems, and connected safety services and solutions for riders of powered two wheelers. The company primarily serves car manufacturers.

Autoliv Fundamentals Summary

How do Autoliv's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
ALIV SDB fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$6.35b
Earnings (TTM)	US$361.00m
Revenue (TTM)	US$8.11b

17.6x

P/E Ratio

0.8x

P/S Ratio

Is ALIV SDB overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
ALIV SDB income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$8.11b
Cost of Revenue	US$6.77b
Gross Profit	US$1.34b
Other Expenses	US$980.00m
Earnings	US$361.00m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

Jul 22, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)	4.13
Gross Margin	16.53%
Net Profit Margin	4.45%
Debt/Equity Ratio	74.6%

How did ALIV SDB perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

3.5%

Current Dividend Yield

61%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is ALIV SDB undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ALIV SDB?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for ALIV SDB. This is calculated by dividing ALIV SDB's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is ALIV SDB's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	US$6.35b

ALIV SDB key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.9x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	8.4x
PEG Ratio	0.7x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ALIV SDB's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

ALIV SDB PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for ALIV SDB vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	43.3x
DOM Dometic Group	11.3x	11.9%	kr19.5b
BULTEN Bulten	37.7x	97.4%	kr1.3b
VOLCAR B Volvo Car AB (publ.)	20.1x	25.7%	kr208.0b
517334 Samvardhana Motherson International	104.3x	53.6%	₹531.5b
ALIV SDB Autoliv	17.6x	26.3%	kr6.3b

Forward PE

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ALIV SDB is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.6x) compared to the peer average (43.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ALIV SDB's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Auto Components Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ALIV SDB is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.6x) compared to the European Auto Components industry average (13.3x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ALIV SDB's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ALIV SDB PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	17.6x
Fair PE Ratio	18.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ALIV SDB is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.4x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ALIV SDB when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ALIV SDB (SEK744.6) is trading below our estimate of fair value (SEK2055.97)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ALIV SDB is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: ALIV SDB is good value based on its PEG Ratio (0.7x)

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Future Growth

How is Autoliv forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 24 analysts?

Future Growth Score

5/6

Future Growth Score 5/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

26.3%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: ALIV SDB's forecast earnings growth (26.3% per year) is above the savings rate (0.4%).

Earnings vs Market: ALIV SDB's earnings (26.3% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the Swedish market (9.6% per year).

High Growth Earnings: ALIV SDB's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: ALIV SDB's revenue (8.5% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the Swedish market (5.5% per year).

High Growth Revenue: ALIV SDB's revenue (8.5% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: ALIV SDB's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (26.1%)

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Past Performance

How has Autoliv performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

3/6

Past Performance Score 3/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

-13.0%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: ALIV SDB has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: ALIV SDB's current net profit margins (4.4%) are higher than last year (3.4%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: ALIV SDB's earnings have declined by 13% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: ALIV SDB's earnings growth over the past year (34.2%) exceeds its 5-year average (-13% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: ALIV SDB earnings growth over the past year (34.2%) underperformed the Auto Components industry 41.9%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: ALIV SDB's Return on Equity (13.6%) is considered low.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is Autoliv's financial position?

Financial Health Score

5/6

Financial Health Score 5/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: ALIV SDB's short term assets ($3.9B) exceed its short term liabilities ($3.1B).

Long Term Liabilities: ALIV SDB's short term assets ($3.9B) exceed its long term liabilities ($2.0B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: ALIV SDB's net debt to equity ratio (39.5%) is considered satisfactory.

Reducing Debt: ALIV SDB's debt to equity ratio has increased from 37.7% to 74.6% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: ALIV SDB's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (32%).

Interest Coverage: ALIV SDB's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (9.6x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Autoliv current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

4/6

Dividend Score 4/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

3.52%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: ALIV SDB's dividend (3.52%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the Swedish market (1.62%).

High Dividend: ALIV SDB's dividend (3.52%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Swedish market (5.42%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: ALIV SDB's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: ALIV SDB's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its reasonable payout ratio (61.1%), ALIV SDB's dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its high cash payout ratio (138%), ALIV SDB's dividend payments are not well covered by cash flows.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

2.8yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Mikael Bratt (55 yo)

4.08yrs

Tenure

US$3,237,848

Compensation

Mr. Mikael Bratt has been President and Chief Executive Officer of Autoliv, Inc. since June 29, 2018 and its Director since September 20, 2018. Mr. Bratt was the President of Passive Safety at Autoliv, Inc...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Mikael's total compensation ($USD3.24M) is above average for companies of similar size in the Swedish market ($USD2.22M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Mikael's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: ALIV SDB's management team is considered experienced (2.8 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: ALIV SDB's board of directors are considered experienced (6.6 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/07/03 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/07/01 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31