Southern Province Cement Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of 3050 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

3050 (SAR32.75) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (SAR48.96)

Is 3050 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 3050 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow

Simply Wall St

ر.س48.96

Fair Value

33.1% undervalued

Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: 3050 (SAR32.75) is trading below our estimate of fair value (SAR48.96)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 3050 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 3050?

Key metric: As 3050 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 3050. This is calculated by dividing 3050's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 3050's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	20.9x
Earnings	ر.س219.39m
Market Cap	ر.س4.59b

3050 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	5.2x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	12x
PEG Ratio	2.3x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 3050's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 3050 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	21.2x
3060 Yanbu Cement	26.4x	25.7%	ر.س3.9b
3040 Qassim Cement	22.3x	26.3%	ر.س5.8b
3092 Riyadh Cement	14.4x	n/a	ر.س3.9b
3003 City Cement	21.8x	11.7%	ر.س2.8b
3050 Southern Province Cement	20.9x	9.0%	ر.س4.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 3050 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.9x) compared to the peer average (21.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 3050's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Basic Materials Industry?

1 Company	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

1 Company		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 3050 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.9x) compared to the Asian Basic Materials industry average (16.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 3050's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

3050 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	20.9x
Fair PE Ratio	17.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 3050 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 3050 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	ر.س32.75	ر.س36.52 +11.5%	14.4%	ر.س43.00	ر.س27.00	n/a	6
Jan ’26	ر.س34.15	ر.س36.92 +8.1%	14.1%	ر.س43.00	ر.س27.00	n/a	6
Dec ’25	ر.س33.80	ر.س38.90 +15.1%	7.7%	ر.س43.00	ر.س36.00	n/a	5
Nov ’25	ر.س33.10	ر.س36.92 +11.5%	13.3%	ر.س43.00	ر.س28.00	n/a	6
Oct ’25	ر.س34.80	ر.س37.42 +7.5%	13.2%	ر.س43.00	ر.س28.00	n/a	6
Sep ’25	ر.س35.95	ر.س37.42 +4.1%	13.2%	ر.س43.00	ر.س28.00	n/a	6
Aug ’25	ر.س35.80	ر.س37.75 +5.4%	13.1%	ر.س43.00	ر.س28.00	n/a	6
Jul ’25	ر.س36.55	ر.س38.43 +5.1%	12.6%	ر.س43.00	ر.س28.00	n/a	7
Jun ’25	ر.س37.50	ر.س38.59 +2.9%	12.6%	ر.س43.00	ر.س28.00	n/a	7
May ’25	ر.س39.45	ر.س39.18 -0.7%	13.2%	ر.س42.90	ر.س28.00	n/a	6
Apr ’25	ر.س39.25	ر.س43.02 +9.6%	4.9%	ر.س47.00	ر.س40.70	n/a	5
Mar ’25	ر.س39.95	ر.س46.03 +15.2%	9.3%	ر.س52.60	ر.س42.00	n/a	4
Feb ’25	ر.س38.75	ر.س45.85 +18.3%	8.7%	ر.س51.90	ر.س42.00	n/a	4
Jan ’25	ر.س42.50	ر.س50.28 +18.3%	14.9%	ر.س64.00	ر.س42.50	ر.س34.15	5
Dec ’24	ر.س42.50	ر.س52.08 +22.5%	12.3%	ر.س64.00	ر.س46.00	ر.س33.80	5
Nov ’24	ر.س40.80	ر.س51.64 +26.6%	12.5%	ر.س64.00	ر.س46.00	ر.س33.10	5
Oct ’24	ر.س44.10	ر.س51.64 +17.1%	12.5%	ر.س64.00	ر.س46.00	ر.س34.80	5
Sep ’24	ر.س46.75	ر.س51.64 +10.5%	12.5%	ر.س64.00	ر.س46.00	ر.س35.95	5
Aug ’24	ر.س49.75	ر.س54.10 +8.7%	11.2%	ر.س64.00	ر.س48.00	ر.س35.80	5
Jul ’24	n/a	ر.س54.02 0%	11.1%	ر.س64.00	ر.س48.00	ر.س36.55	5
Jun ’24	ر.س51.80	ر.س53.56 +3.4%	7.9%	ر.س58.00	ر.س48.00	ر.س37.50	5
May ’24	ر.س52.40	ر.س52.50 +0.2%	4.9%	ر.س55.20	ر.س49.00	ر.س39.45	3
Apr ’24	ر.س49.95	ر.س56.73 +13.6%	12.4%	ر.س66.00	ر.س49.00	ر.س39.25	3
Mar ’24	ر.س50.30	ر.س60.70 +20.7%	12.0%	ر.س67.20	ر.س49.00	ر.س39.95	5
Feb ’24	ر.س50.30	ر.س60.70 +20.7%	12.0%	ر.س67.20	ر.س49.00	ر.س38.75	5
Jan ’24	ر.س51.60	ر.س59.90 +16.1%	14.4%	ر.س67.20	ر.س45.00	ر.س42.50	5

Analyst Price Target

Consensus Narrative from 6 Analysts

ر.س36.52

Fair Value

10.3% undervalued

Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2025/01/22 22:09
End of Day Share Price	2025/01/22 00:00
Earnings	2024/09/30
Annual Earnings	2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

Package	Data	Timeframe	Example US Source ^*
Company Financials	10 years	Income statement Cash flow statement Balance sheet	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form 10-Q
Analyst Consensus Estimates	+3 years	Forecast financials Analyst price targets	Analyst Research Reports Blue Matrix
Market Prices	30 years	Stock prices Dividends, Splits and Actions	ICE Market Data SEC Form S-1
Ownership	10 years	Top shareholders Insider trading	SEC Form 4 SEC Form 13D
Management	10 years	Leadership team Board of directors	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form DEF 14A
Key Developments	10 years	Company announcements	SEC Form 8-K

^* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Southern Province Cement Company is covered by 14 analysts. 3 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

Analyst	Institution
Jassim Al-Jubran	Aljazira Capital Company
Kais Kriaa	AlphaMena
Fadwa Aouini	AlphaMena