Middle East Healthcare Valuation
Is 4009 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
4/6Valuation Score 4/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of 4009 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: 4009 (SAR70.5) is trading below our estimate of fair value (SAR128.06)
Significantly Below Fair Value: 4009 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 4009?
Key metric: As 4009 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.
| What is 4009's PE Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| PE Ratio | 30.7x |
| Earnings | ر.س211.36m |
| Market Cap | ر.س6.49b |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | 3.1x |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | 14.6x |
| PEG Ratio | 1.4x |
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers
How does 4009's PE Ratio compare to its peers?
| Company | Forward PE | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 26.5x | ||
4007 Al Hammadi Holding | 19.4x | 9.4% | ر.س6.3b |
4005 National Medical Care | 26.7x | 11.5% | ر.س7.3b |
4004 Dallah Healthcare | 31.6x | 14.2% | ر.س14.9b |
4002 Mouwasat Medical Services | 28.1x | 16.6% | ر.س18.5b |
4009 Middle East Healthcare | 30.7x | 21.4% | ر.س6.5b |
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 4009 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (30.7x) compared to the peer average (26.5x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does 4009's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Healthcare Industry?
| 2 Companies | Price / Earnings | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Companies | Estimated Growth | Market Cap | |
|---|---|---|---|
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 4009 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (30.7x) compared to the Asian Healthcare industry average (21.4x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is 4009's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PE Ratio | 30.7x |
| Fair PE Ratio | 35.1x |
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 4009 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (30.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (35.1x).
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
| Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | ر.س70.50 | ر.س88.11 +25.0% | 9.1% | ر.س102.00 | ر.س75.00 | n/a | 7 |
| Nov ’25 | ر.س72.30 | ر.س88.11 +21.9% | 9.1% | ر.س102.00 | ر.س75.00 | n/a | 7 |
| Oct ’25 | ر.س72.00 | ر.س88.11 +22.4% | 9.1% | ر.س102.00 | ر.س75.00 | n/a | 7 |
| Sep ’25 | ر.س75.70 | ر.س88.11 +16.4% | 9.1% | ر.س102.00 | ر.س75.00 | n/a | 7 |
| Aug ’25 | ر.س77.40 | ر.س94.97 +22.7% | 4.7% | ر.س102.00 | ر.س88.00 | n/a | 7 |
| Jul ’25 | ر.س85.80 | ر.س94.97 +10.7% | 4.7% | ر.س102.00 | ر.س88.00 | n/a | 7 |
| Jun ’25 | ر.س73.20 | ر.س92.74 +26.7% | 4.6% | ر.س100.00 | ر.س86.40 | n/a | 7 |
| May ’25 | ر.س90.00 | ر.س84.20 -6.4% | 23.5% | ر.س107.00 | ر.س42.00 | n/a | 7 |
| Apr ’25 | ر.س89.10 | ر.س86.06 -3.4% | 25.4% | ر.س113.00 | ر.س42.00 | n/a | 7 |
| Mar ’25 | ر.س121.60 | ر.س86.06 -29.2% | 25.4% | ر.س113.00 | ر.س42.00 | n/a | 7 |
| Feb ’25 | ر.س108.20 | ر.س80.06 -26.0% | 24.1% | ر.س107.00 | ر.س42.00 | n/a | 7 |
| Jan ’25 | ر.س90.40 | ر.س74.20 -17.9% | 22.4% | ر.س92.00 | ر.س40.00 | n/a | 7 |
| Dec ’24 | ر.س78.40 | ر.س68.73 -12.3% | 22.8% | ر.س92.00 | ر.س40.00 | n/a | 7 |
| Nov ’24 | ر.س69.40 | ر.س64.16 -7.6% | 25.1% | ر.س92.00 | ر.س35.00 | ر.س72.30 | 7 |
| Oct ’24 | ر.س59.70 | ر.س63.01 +5.6% | 25.3% | ر.س92.00 | ر.س35.00 | ر.س72.00 | 7 |
| Sep ’24 | ر.س58.70 | ر.س62.73 +6.9% | 26.3% | ر.س92.00 | ر.س33.00 | ر.س75.70 | 7 |
| Aug ’24 | ر.س63.20 | ر.س62.68 -0.8% | 28.4% | ر.س92.00 | ر.س33.00 | ر.س77.40 | 6 |
| Jul ’24 | n/a | ر.س62.68 0% | 28.4% | ر.س92.00 | ر.س33.00 | ر.س85.80 | 6 |
| Jun ’24 | ر.س58.90 | ر.س37.58 -36.2% | 25.2% | ر.س57.00 | ر.س29.00 | ر.س73.20 | 6 |
| May ’24 | ر.س39.65 | ر.س33.70 -15.0% | 12.4% | ر.س40.50 | ر.س29.00 | ر.س90.00 | 5 |
| Apr ’24 | ر.س37.65 | ر.س32.70 -13.1% | 14.7% | ر.س40.50 | ر.س28.00 | ر.س89.10 | 5 |
| Mar ’24 | ر.س33.40 | ر.س29.80 -10.8% | 4.5% | ر.س32.00 | ر.س28.00 | ر.س121.60 | 5 |
| Feb ’24 | ر.س27.55 | ر.س29.64 +7.6% | 4.9% | ر.س32.00 | ر.س28.00 | ر.س108.20 | 5 |
| Jan ’24 | ر.س25.75 | ر.س30.06 +16.7% | 4.5% | ر.س32.00 | ر.س28.22 | ر.س90.40 | 4 |
| Dec ’23 | ر.س27.00 | ر.س30.06 +11.3% | 4.5% | ر.س32.00 | ر.س28.22 | ر.س78.40 | 4 |
| Nov ’23 | ر.س31.30 | ر.س30.06 -4.0% | 4.5% | ر.س32.00 | ر.س28.22 | ر.س69.40 | 4 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.