Middle East Healthcare Company

SASE:4009 Stock Report

Market Cap: ر.س8.0b

Middle East Healthcare Valuation

Is 4009 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 4009 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 4009 (SAR87.4) is trading below our estimate of fair value (SAR110.38)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 4009 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 4009?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

4009 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.9x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA18.6x
PEG Ratio2x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 4009's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 4009 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average38.1x
4007 Al Hammadi Holding
26.1x11.5%ر.س7.5b
4005 National Medical Care
37.3x9.1%ر.س9.9b
4017 Dr. Soliman Abdel Kader Fakeeh Hospital
48.3x16.6%ر.س13.5b
4004 Dallah Healthcare
40.8x15.0%ر.س15.7b
4009 Middle East Healthcare
44.2x21.8%ر.س8.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 4009 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (44.2x) compared to the peer average (38.1x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 4009's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Healthcare Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a14.7%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a14.7%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 4009 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (44.2x) compared to the Asian Healthcare industry average (22.5x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 4009's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

4009 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio44.2x
Fair PE Ratio41.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 4009 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (44.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (41.2x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 4009 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Currentر.س87.40
ر.س94.97
+8.7%
4.7%ر.س102.00ر.س88.00n/a7
Jul ’25ر.س85.80
ر.س94.97
+10.7%
4.7%ر.س102.00ر.س88.00n/a7
Jun ’25ر.س73.20
ر.س92.74
+26.7%
4.6%ر.س100.00ر.س86.40n/a7
May ’25ر.س90.00
ر.س84.20
-6.4%
23.5%ر.س107.00ر.س42.00n/a7
Apr ’25ر.س89.10
ر.س86.06
-3.4%
25.4%ر.س113.00ر.س42.00n/a7
Mar ’25ر.س121.60
ر.س86.06
-29.2%
25.4%ر.س113.00ر.س42.00n/a7
Feb ’25ر.س108.20
ر.س80.06
-26.0%
24.1%ر.س107.00ر.س42.00n/a7
Jan ’25ر.س90.40
ر.س74.20
-17.9%
22.4%ر.س92.00ر.س40.00n/a7
Dec ’24ر.س78.40
ر.س68.73
-12.3%
22.8%ر.س92.00ر.س40.00n/a7
Nov ’24ر.س69.40
ر.س64.16
-7.6%
25.1%ر.س92.00ر.س35.00n/a7
Oct ’24ر.س59.70
ر.س63.01
+5.6%
25.3%ر.س92.00ر.س35.00n/a7
Sep ’24ر.س58.70
ر.س62.73
+6.9%
26.3%ر.س92.00ر.س33.00n/a7
Aug ’24ر.س63.20
ر.س62.68
-0.8%
28.4%ر.س92.00ر.س33.00n/a6
Jul ’24n/a
ر.س62.68
0%
28.4%ر.س92.00ر.س33.00ر.س85.806
Jun ’24ر.س58.90
ر.س37.58
-36.2%
25.2%ر.س57.00ر.س29.00ر.س73.206
May ’24ر.س39.65
ر.س33.70
-15.0%
12.4%ر.س40.50ر.س29.00ر.س90.005
Apr ’24ر.س37.65
ر.س32.70
-13.1%
14.7%ر.س40.50ر.س28.00ر.س89.105
Mar ’24ر.س33.40
ر.س29.80
-10.8%
4.5%ر.س32.00ر.س28.00ر.س121.605
Feb ’24ر.س27.55
ر.س29.64
+7.6%
4.9%ر.س32.00ر.س28.00ر.س108.205
Jan ’24ر.س25.75
ر.س30.06
+16.7%
4.5%ر.س32.00ر.س28.22ر.س90.404
Dec ’23ر.س27.00
ر.س30.06
+11.3%
4.5%ر.س32.00ر.س28.22ر.س78.404
Nov ’23ر.س31.30
ر.س30.06
-4.0%
4.5%ر.س32.00ر.س28.22ر.س69.404
Oct ’23ر.س27.20
ر.س30.06
+10.5%
4.5%ر.س32.00ر.س28.22ر.س59.704
Sep ’23ر.س32.40
ر.س30.06
-7.2%
4.5%ر.س32.00ر.س28.22ر.س58.704
Aug ’23ر.س35.05
ر.س32.06
-8.5%
13.1%ر.س40.10ر.س28.22ر.س63.205
Jul ’23ر.س32.20
ر.س32.58
+1.2%
13.9%ر.س40.10ر.س28.22n/a4

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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