Middle East Healthcare Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of 4009 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

4009 (SAR70.6) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (SAR178.1)

Is 4009 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 4009 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 4009 (SAR70.6) is trading below our estimate of fair value (SAR178.1)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 4009 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 4009?

Key metric: As 4009 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 4009. This is calculated by dividing 4009's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 4009's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	30.7x
Earnings	ر.س211.36m
Market Cap	ر.س6.50b

4009 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	3.1x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	14.6x
PEG Ratio	1.4x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 4009's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 4009 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	33.1x
4005 National Medical Care	26.9x	11.2%	ر.س7.4b
4007 Al Hammadi Holding	19.1x	9.4%	ر.س6.2b
4004 Dallah Healthcare	31.5x	14.9%	ر.س14.8b
4017 Dr. Soliman Abdel Kader Fakeeh Hospital	54.7x	19.1%	ر.س15.7b
4009 Middle East Healthcare	30.7x	21.5%	ر.س6.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 4009 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (30.7x) compared to the peer average (33.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 4009's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Healthcare Industry?

2 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

2 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 4009 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (30.7x) compared to the Asian Healthcare industry average (20.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 4009's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

4009 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	30.7x
Fair PE Ratio	35x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 4009 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (30.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (35x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 4009 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	ر.س70.60	ر.س88.83 +25.8%	8.9%	ر.س102.00	ر.س75.00	n/a	7
Dec ’25	ر.س69.60	ر.س88.11 +26.6%	9.1%	ر.س102.00	ر.س75.00	n/a	7
Nov ’25	ر.س72.30	ر.س88.11 +21.9%	9.1%	ر.س102.00	ر.س75.00	n/a	7
Oct ’25	ر.س72.00	ر.س88.11 +22.4%	9.1%	ر.س102.00	ر.س75.00	n/a	7
Sep ’25	ر.س75.70	ر.س88.11 +16.4%	9.1%	ر.س102.00	ر.س75.00	n/a	7
Aug ’25	ر.س77.40	ر.س94.97 +22.7%	4.7%	ر.س102.00	ر.س88.00	n/a	7
Jul ’25	ر.س85.80	ر.س94.97 +10.7%	4.7%	ر.س102.00	ر.س88.00	n/a	7
Jun ’25	ر.س73.20	ر.س92.74 +26.7%	4.6%	ر.س100.00	ر.س86.40	n/a	7
May ’25	ر.س90.00	ر.س84.20 -6.4%	23.5%	ر.س107.00	ر.س42.00	n/a	7
Apr ’25	ر.س89.10	ر.س86.06 -3.4%	25.4%	ر.س113.00	ر.س42.00	n/a	7
Mar ’25	ر.س121.60	ر.س86.06 -29.2%	25.4%	ر.س113.00	ر.س42.00	n/a	7
Feb ’25	ر.س108.20	ر.س80.06 -26.0%	24.1%	ر.س107.00	ر.س42.00	n/a	7
Jan ’25	ر.س90.40	ر.س74.20 -17.9%	22.4%	ر.س92.00	ر.س40.00	n/a	7
Dec ’24	ر.س78.40	ر.س68.73 -12.3%	22.8%	ر.س92.00	ر.س40.00	ر.س69.60	7
Nov ’24	ر.س69.40	ر.س64.16 -7.6%	25.1%	ر.س92.00	ر.س35.00	ر.س72.30	7
Oct ’24	ر.س59.70	ر.س63.01 +5.6%	25.3%	ر.س92.00	ر.س35.00	ر.س72.00	7
Sep ’24	ر.س58.70	ر.س62.73 +6.9%	26.3%	ر.س92.00	ر.س33.00	ر.س75.70	7
Aug ’24	ر.س63.20	ر.س62.68 -0.8%	28.4%	ر.س92.00	ر.س33.00	ر.س77.40	6
Jul ’24	n/a	ر.س62.68 0%	28.4%	ر.س92.00	ر.س33.00	ر.س85.80	6
Jun ’24	ر.س58.90	ر.س37.58 -36.2%	25.2%	ر.س57.00	ر.س29.00	ر.س73.20	6
May ’24	ر.س39.65	ر.س33.70 -15.0%	12.4%	ر.س40.50	ر.س29.00	ر.س90.00	5
Apr ’24	ر.س37.65	ر.س32.70 -13.1%	14.7%	ر.س40.50	ر.س28.00	ر.س89.10	5
Mar ’24	ر.س33.40	ر.س29.80 -10.8%	4.5%	ر.س32.00	ر.س28.00	ر.س121.60	5
Feb ’24	ر.س27.55	ر.س29.64 +7.6%	4.9%	ر.س32.00	ر.س28.00	ر.س108.20	5
Jan ’24	ر.س25.75	ر.س30.06 +16.7%	4.5%	ر.س32.00	ر.س28.22	ر.س90.40	4
Dec ’23	ر.س27.00	ر.س30.06 +11.3%	4.5%	ر.س32.00	ر.س28.22	ر.س78.40	4

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2024/12/21 03:05
End of Day Share Price	2024/12/19 00:00
Earnings	2024/09/30
Annual Earnings	2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

Package	Data	Timeframe	Example US Source ^*
Company Financials	10 years	Income statement Cash flow statement Balance sheet	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form 10-Q
Analyst Consensus Estimates	+3 years	Forecast financials Analyst price targets	Analyst Research Reports Blue Matrix
Market Prices	30 years	Stock prices Dividends, Splits and Actions	ICE Market Data SEC Form S-1
Ownership	10 years	Top shareholders Insider trading	SEC Form 4 SEC Form 13D
Management	10 years	Leadership team Board of directors	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form DEF 14A
Key Developments	10 years	Company announcements	SEC Form 8-K

^* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Middle East Healthcare Company is covered by 12 analysts. 4 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

Analyst	Institution
Ibrahim Elaiwat	Aljazira Capital Company
Jassim Al-Jubran	Aljazira Capital Company
Madhu Appissa	Al Rajhi Capital