National Medical Care Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of 4005 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

4005 (SAR165.2) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (SAR166.04)

Is 4005 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 4005 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 4005 (SAR165.2) is trading below our estimate of fair value (SAR166.04)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 4005 is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 4005?

Key metric: As 4005 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 4005. This is calculated by dividing 4005's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 4005's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	26.9x
Earnings	ر.س274.45m
Market Cap	ر.س7.38b

4005 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	6.1x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	23.5x
PEG Ratio	2.4x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 4005's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 4005 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	34x
4009 Middle East Healthcare	30.7x	21.5%	ر.س6.5b
4007 Al Hammadi Holding	19.1x	9.4%	ر.س6.2b
4004 Dallah Healthcare	31.5x	14.9%	ر.س14.8b
4017 Dr. Soliman Abdel Kader Fakeeh Hospital	54.7x	19.1%	ر.س15.7b
4005 National Medical Care	26.9x	11.2%	ر.س7.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 4005 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.9x) compared to the peer average (34x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 4005's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Healthcare Industry?

2 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

2 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 4005 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.9x) compared to the Asian Healthcare industry average (20.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 4005's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

4005 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	26.9x
Fair PE Ratio	27.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 4005 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (27.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 4005 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	ر.س165.20	ر.س212.43 +28.6%	10.1%	ر.س250.00	ر.س180.00	n/a	7
Dec ’25	ر.س164.00	ر.س218.29 +33.1%	7.5%	ر.س250.00	ر.س202.00	n/a	7
Nov ’25	ر.س190.80	ر.س221.00 +15.8%	7.5%	ر.س250.00	ر.س202.00	n/a	7
Oct ’25	ر.س203.60	ر.س221.00 +8.5%	7.5%	ر.س250.00	ر.س202.00	n/a	7
Sep ’25	ر.س197.00	ر.س221.00 +12.2%	7.5%	ر.س250.00	ر.س202.00	n/a	7
Aug ’25	ر.س214.00	ر.س221.67 +3.6%	8.2%	ر.س250.00	ر.س199.00	n/a	6
Jul ’25	ر.س206.00	ر.س212.00 +2.9%	12.0%	ر.س250.00	ر.س169.00	n/a	7
Jun ’25	ر.س184.40	ر.س202.33 +9.7%	11.6%	ر.س234.00	ر.س169.00	n/a	6
May ’25	ر.س186.00	ر.س204.43 +9.9%	10.7%	ر.س234.00	ر.س169.00	n/a	7
Apr ’25	ر.س181.00	ر.س200.57 +10.8%	11.6%	ر.س234.00	ر.س169.00	n/a	7
Mar ’25	ر.س201.00	ر.س200.57 -0.2%	11.6%	ر.س234.00	ر.س169.00	n/a	7
Feb ’25	ر.س191.00	ر.س179.14 -6.2%	11.7%	ر.س212.00	ر.س143.00	n/a	7
Jan ’25	ر.س182.00	ر.س172.43 -5.3%	9.5%	ر.س200.00	ر.س143.00	n/a	7
Dec ’24	ر.س141.80	ر.س153.83 +8.5%	13.3%	ر.س180.00	ر.س117.00	ر.س164.00	6
Nov ’24	ر.س121.20	ر.س133.50 +10.1%	8.3%	ر.س150.00	ر.س117.00	ر.س190.80	6
Oct ’24	ر.س125.60	ر.س125.17 -0.3%	13.5%	ر.س150.00	ر.س97.00	ر.س203.60	6
Sep ’24	ر.س121.80	ر.س125.50 +3.0%	13.4%	ر.س150.00	ر.س97.00	ر.س197.00	6
Aug ’24	ر.س132.20	ر.س118.83 -10.1%	19.3%	ر.س150.00	ر.س84.00	ر.س214.00	6
Jul ’24	n/a	ر.س118.83 0%	19.3%	ر.س150.00	ر.س84.00	ر.س206.00	6
Jun ’24	ر.س110.00	ر.س96.50 -12.3%	16.6%	ر.س125.00	ر.س73.00	ر.س184.40	6
May ’24	ر.س94.30	ر.س88.67 -6.0%	11.0%	ر.س100.00	ر.س73.00	ر.س186.00	6
Apr ’24	ر.س90.20	ر.س88.67 -1.7%	11.0%	ر.س100.00	ر.س73.00	ر.س181.00	6
Mar ’24	ر.س79.30	ر.س76.50 -3.5%	9.9%	ر.س85.00	ر.س65.00	ر.س201.00	6
Feb ’24	ر.س80.00	ر.س76.50 -4.4%	9.9%	ر.س85.00	ر.س65.00	ر.س191.00	6
Jan ’24	ر.س74.20	ر.س76.50 +3.1%	9.9%	ر.س85.00	ر.س65.00	ر.س182.00	6
Dec ’23	ر.س74.80	ر.س75.83 +1.4%	9.6%	ر.س85.00	ر.س65.00	ر.س141.80	6

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2024/12/21 03:30
End of Day Share Price	2024/12/19 00:00
Earnings	2024/09/30
Annual Earnings	2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

Package	Data	Timeframe	Example US Source ^*
Company Financials	10 years	Income statement Cash flow statement Balance sheet	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form 10-Q
Analyst Consensus Estimates	+3 years	Forecast financials Analyst price targets	Analyst Research Reports Blue Matrix
Market Prices	30 years	Stock prices Dividends, Splits and Actions	ICE Market Data SEC Form S-1
Ownership	10 years	Top shareholders Insider trading	SEC Form 4 SEC Form 13D
Management	10 years	Leadership team Board of directors	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form DEF 14A
Key Developments	10 years	Company announcements	SEC Form 8-K

^* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

National Medical Care Company is covered by 12 analysts. 6 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

Analyst	Institution
Ibrahim Elaiwat	Aljazira Capital Company
Jassim Al-Jubran	Aljazira Capital Company
Madhu Appissa	Al Rajhi Capital