National Medical Care Company

SASE:4005 Stock Report

Market Cap: ر.س9.5b

National Medical Care Valuation

Is 4005 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 4005 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 4005 (SAR216.6) is trading above our estimate of fair value (SAR143.34)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 4005 is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 4005?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

4005 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue8.3x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA30.2x
PEG Ratio4x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 4005's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 4005 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average39.8x
4007 Al Hammadi Holding
26.3x11.5%ر.س7.5b
4009 Middle East Healthcare
44.7x21.8%ر.س8.2b
4017 Dr. Soliman Abdel Kader Fakeeh Hospital
48.3x16.6%ر.س13.6b
4004 Dallah Healthcare
40.1x15.0%ر.س15.3b
4005 National Medical Care
36.5x9.1%ر.س9.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 4005 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (36.5x) compared to the peer average (40x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 4005's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Healthcare Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a14.8%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a14.8%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 4005 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (36.5x) compared to the Asian Healthcare industry average (22.8x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 4005's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

4005 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio36.5x
Fair PE Ratio31.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 4005 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (36.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (31.8x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 4005 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Currentر.س216.60
ر.س212.00
-2.1%
12.0%ر.س250.00ر.س169.00n/a7
Jul ’25ر.س206.00
ر.س212.00
+2.9%
12.0%ر.س250.00ر.س169.00n/a7
Jun ’25ر.س184.40
ر.س202.33
+9.7%
11.6%ر.س234.00ر.س169.00n/a6
May ’25ر.س186.00
ر.س204.43
+9.9%
10.7%ر.س234.00ر.س169.00n/a7
Apr ’25ر.س181.00
ر.س200.57
+10.8%
11.6%ر.س234.00ر.س169.00n/a7
Mar ’25ر.س201.00
ر.س200.57
-0.2%
11.6%ر.س234.00ر.س169.00n/a7
Feb ’25ر.س191.00
ر.س179.14
-6.2%
11.7%ر.س212.00ر.س143.00n/a7
Jan ’25ر.س182.00
ر.س172.43
-5.3%
9.5%ر.س200.00ر.س143.00n/a7
Dec ’24ر.س141.80
ر.س153.83
+8.5%
13.3%ر.س180.00ر.س117.00n/a6
Nov ’24ر.س121.20
ر.س133.50
+10.1%
8.3%ر.س150.00ر.س117.00n/a6
Oct ’24ر.س125.60
ر.س125.17
-0.3%
13.5%ر.س150.00ر.س97.00n/a6
Sep ’24ر.س121.80
ر.س125.50
+3.0%
13.4%ر.س150.00ر.س97.00n/a6
Aug ’24ر.س132.20
ر.س118.83
-10.1%
19.3%ر.س150.00ر.س84.00n/a6
Jul ’24n/a
ر.س118.83
0%
19.3%ر.س150.00ر.س84.00ر.س206.006
Jun ’24ر.س110.00
ر.س96.50
-12.3%
16.6%ر.س125.00ر.س73.00ر.س184.406
May ’24ر.س94.30
ر.س88.67
-6.0%
11.0%ر.س100.00ر.س73.00ر.س186.006
Apr ’24ر.س90.20
ر.س88.67
-1.7%
11.0%ر.س100.00ر.س73.00ر.س181.006
Mar ’24ر.س79.30
ر.س76.50
-3.5%
9.9%ر.س85.00ر.س65.00ر.س201.006
Feb ’24ر.س80.00
ر.س76.50
-4.4%
9.9%ر.س85.00ر.س65.00ر.س191.006
Jan ’24ر.س74.20
ر.س76.50
+3.1%
9.9%ر.س85.00ر.س65.00ر.س182.006
Dec ’23ر.س74.80
ر.س75.83
+1.4%
9.6%ر.س85.00ر.س65.00ر.س141.806
Nov ’23ر.س73.80
ر.س72.33
-2.0%
8.8%ر.س83.00ر.س65.00ر.س121.206
Oct ’23ر.س72.40
ر.س72.00
-0.6%
8.5%ر.س83.00ر.س65.00ر.س125.606
Sep ’23ر.س62.10
ر.س69.80
+12.4%
5.8%ر.س76.00ر.س65.00ر.س121.805
Aug ’23ر.س58.80
ر.س72.53
+23.4%
5.4%ر.س78.00ر.س66.00ر.س132.206
Jul ’23ر.س54.00
ر.س73.84
+36.7%
3.8%ر.س78.00ر.س70.00n/a5

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.


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