National Medical Care Valuation
Is 4005 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
2/6Valuation Score 2/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of 4005 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: 4005 (SAR182) is trading above our estimate of fair value (SAR151.93)
Significantly Below Fair Value: 4005 is trading above our estimate of fair value.
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 4005?
Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.
| What is 4005's n/a Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| n/a | 0x |
| n/a | n/a |
| Market Cap | ر.س8.52b |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | 7.2x |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | 26.7x |
| PEG Ratio | 3.2x |
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers
How does 4005's PE Ratio compare to its peers?
| Company | Forward PE | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 34.6x | ||
4007 Al Hammadi Holding | 20x | 9.4% | ر.س6.5b |
4009 Middle East Healthcare | 33x | 20.8% | ر.س6.7b |
4004 Dallah Healthcare | 35.3x | 14.0% | ر.س15.4b |
4017 Dr. Soliman Abdel Kader Fakeeh Hospital | 50x | 19.6% | ر.س13.6b |
4005 National Medical Care | 28.4x | 8.9% | ر.س8.5b |
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 4005 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.4x) compared to the peer average (34.5x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does 4005's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Healthcare Industry?
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 4005 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.4x) compared to the Asian Healthcare industry average (23.6x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is 4005's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PE Ratio | 28.4x |
| Fair PE Ratio | 28.1x |
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 4005 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.1x).
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
| Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | ر.س184.00 | ر.س221.00 +20.1% | 7.5% | ر.س250.00 | ر.س202.00 | n/a | 7 |
| Oct ’25 | ر.س203.60 | ر.س221.00 +8.5% | 7.5% | ر.س250.00 | ر.س202.00 | n/a | 7 |
| Sep ’25 | ر.س197.00 | ر.س221.00 +12.2% | 7.5% | ر.س250.00 | ر.س202.00 | n/a | 7 |
| Aug ’25 | ر.س214.00 | ر.س221.67 +3.6% | 8.2% | ر.س250.00 | ر.س199.00 | n/a | 6 |
| Jul ’25 | ر.س206.00 | ر.س212.00 +2.9% | 12.0% | ر.س250.00 | ر.س169.00 | n/a | 7 |
| Jun ’25 | ر.س184.40 | ر.س202.33 +9.7% | 11.6% | ر.س234.00 | ر.س169.00 | n/a | 6 |
| May ’25 | ر.س186.00 | ر.س204.43 +9.9% | 10.7% | ر.س234.00 | ر.س169.00 | n/a | 7 |
| Apr ’25 | ر.س181.00 | ر.س200.57 +10.8% | 11.6% | ر.س234.00 | ر.س169.00 | n/a | 7 |
| Mar ’25 | ر.س201.00 | ر.س200.57 -0.2% | 11.6% | ر.س234.00 | ر.س169.00 | n/a | 7 |
| Feb ’25 | ر.س191.00 | ر.س179.14 -6.2% | 11.7% | ر.س212.00 | ر.س143.00 | n/a | 7 |
| Jan ’25 | ر.س182.00 | ر.س172.43 -5.3% | 9.5% | ر.س200.00 | ر.س143.00 | n/a | 7 |
| Dec ’24 | ر.س141.80 | ر.س153.83 +8.5% | 13.3% | ر.س180.00 | ر.س117.00 | n/a | 6 |
| Nov ’24 | ر.س121.20 | ر.س133.50 +10.1% | 8.3% | ر.س150.00 | ر.س117.00 | n/a | 6 |
| Oct ’24 | ر.س125.60 | ر.س125.17 -0.3% | 13.5% | ر.س150.00 | ر.س97.00 | ر.س203.60 | 6 |
| Sep ’24 | ر.س121.80 | ر.س125.50 +3.0% | 13.4% | ر.س150.00 | ر.س97.00 | ر.س197.00 | 6 |
| Aug ’24 | ر.س132.20 | ر.س118.83 -10.1% | 19.3% | ر.س150.00 | ر.س84.00 | ر.س214.00 | 6 |
| Jul ’24 | n/a | ر.س118.83 0% | 19.3% | ر.س150.00 | ر.س84.00 | ر.س206.00 | 6 |
| Jun ’24 | ر.س110.00 | ر.س96.50 -12.3% | 16.6% | ر.س125.00 | ر.س73.00 | ر.س184.40 | 6 |
| May ’24 | ر.س94.30 | ر.س88.67 -6.0% | 11.0% | ر.س100.00 | ر.س73.00 | ر.س186.00 | 6 |
| Apr ’24 | ر.س90.20 | ر.س88.67 -1.7% | 11.0% | ر.س100.00 | ر.س73.00 | ر.س181.00 | 6 |
| Mar ’24 | ر.س79.30 | ر.س76.50 -3.5% | 9.9% | ر.س85.00 | ر.س65.00 | ر.س201.00 | 6 |
| Feb ’24 | ر.س80.00 | ر.س76.50 -4.4% | 9.9% | ر.س85.00 | ر.س65.00 | ر.س191.00 | 6 |
| Jan ’24 | ر.س74.20 | ر.س76.50 +3.1% | 9.9% | ر.س85.00 | ر.س65.00 | ر.س182.00 | 6 |
| Dec ’23 | ر.س74.80 | ر.س75.83 +1.4% | 9.6% | ر.س85.00 | ر.س65.00 | ر.س141.80 | 6 |
| Nov ’23 | ر.س73.80 | ر.س72.33 -2.0% | 8.8% | ر.س83.00 | ر.س65.00 | ر.س121.20 | 6 |
| Oct ’23 | ر.س72.40 | ر.س72.00 -0.6% | 8.5% | ر.س83.00 | ر.س65.00 | ر.س125.60 | 6 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.