Herfy Food Services Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of 6002 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

6002 (SAR23.5) is trading above our estimate of [[fair value]] (SAR16.22)

Is 6002 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 6002 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 6002 (SAR23.5) is trading above our estimate of fair value (SAR16.22)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 6002 is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 6002?

Key metric: As 6002 is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for 6002. This is calculated by dividing 6002's market cap by their current revenue.
What is 6002's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio	1.3x
Sales	ر.س1.17b
Market Cap	ر.س1.52b

6002 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.7x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	24x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does 6002's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for 6002 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PS	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	2.8x
6014 Alamar Foods	2.2x	13.1%	ر.س1.9b
6016 Shatirah House Restaurant	2.8x	n/a	ر.س845.6m
6013 Development Works Food	4.1x	n/a	ر.س388.2m
6012 Raydan Food	2.3x	n/a	ر.س358.5m
6002 Herfy Food Services	1.3x	6.6%	ر.س1.5b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: 6002 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.3x) compared to the peer average (2.8x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does 6002's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Hospitality Industry?

55 Companies	Price / Sales	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

55 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: 6002 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.3x) compared to the Asian Hospitality industry average (1.5x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 6002's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

6002 PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio	1.3x
Fair PS Ratio	1.9x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: 6002 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 6002 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	ر.س23.50	ر.س24.76 +5.4%	5.5%	ر.س26.50	ر.س23.00	n/a	5
Nov ’25	ر.س24.44	ر.س25.50 +4.4%	5.8%	ر.س27.82	ر.س23.70	n/a	5
Oct ’25	ر.س27.80	ر.س27.02 -2.8%	6.8%	ر.س30.20	ر.س25.00	n/a	5
Sep ’25	ر.س27.20	ر.س27.02 -0.6%	6.8%	ر.س30.20	ر.س25.00	n/a	5
Aug ’25	ر.س26.75	ر.س32.01 +19.6%	14.9%	ر.س39.52	ر.س26.50	n/a	4
Jul ’25	ر.س28.65	ر.س31.60 +10.3%	13.7%	ر.س39.52	ر.س26.50	n/a	5
Jun ’25	ر.س28.60	ر.س31.60 +10.5%	13.7%	ر.س39.52	ر.س26.50	n/a	5
May ’25	ر.س31.70	ر.س30.96 -2.3%	10.4%	ر.س36.31	ر.س26.50	n/a	5
Apr ’25	ر.س33.15	ر.س30.96 -6.6%	10.4%	ر.س36.31	ر.س26.50	n/a	5
Mar ’25	ر.س36.60	ر.س31.56 -13.8%	13.5%	ر.س39.31	ر.س26.50	n/a	5
Feb ’25	ر.س31.60	ر.س31.56 -0.1%	13.5%	ر.س39.31	ر.س26.50	n/a	5
Jan ’25	ر.س32.95	ر.س30.63 -7.1%	11.2%	ر.س36.00	ر.س26.50	n/a	4
Dec ’24	ر.س31.10	ر.س31.00 -0.3%	9.7%	ر.س36.00	ر.س28.00	n/a	4
Nov ’24	ر.س30.25	ر.س31.50 +4.1%	9.4%	ر.س36.00	ر.س28.00	ر.س24.44	4
Oct ’24	ر.س32.75	ر.س31.50 -3.8%	9.4%	ر.س36.00	ر.س28.00	ر.س27.80	4
Sep ’24	ر.س34.80	ر.س31.50 -9.5%	9.4%	ر.س36.00	ر.س28.00	ر.س27.20	4
Aug ’24	ر.س36.90	ر.س31.88 -13.6%	9.3%	ر.س36.00	ر.س28.00	ر.س26.75	4
Jul ’24	n/a	ر.س31.88 0%	9.3%	ر.س36.00	ر.س28.00	ر.س28.65	4
Jun ’24	ر.س35.25	ر.س36.88 +4.6%	18.2%	ر.س48.00	ر.س30.50	ر.س28.60	4
May ’24	ر.س35.25	ر.س37.20 +5.5%	16.6%	ر.س48.00	ر.س30.00	ر.س31.70	5
Apr ’24	ر.س32.70	ر.س37.30 +14.1%	16.3%	ر.س48.00	ر.س30.50	ر.س33.15	5
Mar ’24	ر.س34.40	ر.س37.28 +8.4%	16.3%	ر.س48.00	ر.س30.40	ر.س36.60	5
Feb ’24	ر.س36.10	ر.س37.28 +3.3%	16.3%	ر.س48.00	ر.س30.40	ر.س31.60	5
Jan ’24	ر.س35.15	ر.س39.28 +11.7%	17.6%	ر.س48.00	ر.س30.40	ر.س32.95	5
Dec ’23	ر.س35.85	ر.س39.30 +9.6%	17.5%	ر.س48.00	ر.س30.50	ر.س31.10	5
Nov ’23	ر.س37.75	ر.س42.50 +12.6%	16.3%	ر.س49.00	ر.س30.50	ر.س30.25	5

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.