Sistema Public Joint Stock Financial Corporation (MCX:AFKS) Full-Year Results: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

Investors in Sistema Public Joint Stock Financial Corporation (MCX:AFKS) had a good week, as its shares rose 2.2% to close at ₽36.12 following the release of its yearly results. It was an okay report, and revenues came in at ₽692b, approximately in line with analyst estimates leading up to the results announcement. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for Sistema Financial

After the latest results, the eight analysts covering Sistema Financial are now predicting revenues of ₽800.3b in 2021. If met, this would reflect a decent 16% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 170% to ₽2.04. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of ₽770.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of ₽1.63 in 2021. There's been a pretty noticeable increase in sentiment, with the analysts upgrading revenues and making a very substantial lift in earnings per share in particular.

Despite these upgrades,the analysts have not made any major changes to their price target of US$0.56, suggesting that the higher estimates are not likely to have a long term impact on what the stock is worth. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Sistema Financial analyst has a price target of US$48.03 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$28.23. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. For example, we noticed that Sistema Financial's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 16% growth to the end of 2021 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 1.1% a year over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 2.1% per year. So it looks like Sistema Financial is expected to grow faster than its competitors, at least for a while.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Sistema Financial's earnings potential next year. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at ₽0.56, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Sistema Financial analysts - going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Sistema Financial has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

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