Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. As with many other companies Public Joint Stock Company Raspadskaya (MCX:RASP) makes use of debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
When Is Debt A Problem?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
See our latest analysis for Raspadskaya
What Is Raspadskaya's Net Debt?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of June 2021 Raspadskaya had US$400.0m of debt, an increase on US$1.00m, over one year. However, it does have US$233.0m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about US$167.0m.
A Look At Raspadskaya's Liabilities
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Raspadskaya had liabilities of US$342.0m falling due within a year, and liabilities of US$757.0m due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had US$233.0m in cash and US$180.0m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$686.0m.
Since publicly traded Raspadskaya shares are worth a total of US$4.36b, it seems unlikely that this level of liabilities would be a major threat. However, we do think it is worth keeping an eye on its balance sheet strength, as it may change over time.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
Raspadskaya's net debt is only 0.44 times its EBITDA. And its EBIT covers its interest expense a whopping 16.6 times over. So you could argue it is no more threatened by its debt than an elephant is by a mouse. Better yet, Raspadskaya grew its EBIT by 202% last year, which is an impressive improvement. That boost will make it even easier to pay down debt going forward. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is Raspadskaya's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. During the last three years, Raspadskaya generated free cash flow amounting to a very robust 88% of its EBIT, more than we'd expect. That positions it well to pay down debt if desirable to do so.
Our View
Happily, Raspadskaya's impressive interest cover implies it has the upper hand on its debt. And that's just the beginning of the good news since its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow is also very heartening. Considering this range of factors, it seems to us that Raspadskaya is quite prudent with its debt, and the risks seem well managed. So the balance sheet looks pretty healthy, to us. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Raspadskaya you should know about.
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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About MISX:RASP
Raspadskaya
Public Joint Stock Company Raspadskaya, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the mining of coking coal.
Flawless balance sheet with solid track record.