Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jul 03
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 18% After last week's 18% share price gain to RON220, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 19x. Average forward P/E is 18x in the Renewable Energy industry in Europe. Total returns to shareholders of 88% over the past year. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at RON111 per share. Major Estimate Revision • May 29
Consensus revenue estimates increase by 10% The consensus outlook for revenues in fiscal year 2026 has improved. 2026 revenue forecast increased from RON11.0b to RON12.1b. EPS estimate increased from RON9.94 to RON11.60 per share. Net income forecast to grow 24% next year vs 27% growth forecast for Renewable Energy industry in Romania. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at RON118. Share price was steady at RON180 over the past week. Upcoming Dividend • May 27
Upcoming dividend of RON7.35 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 03 June 2026. Payment date: 25 June 2026. Payout ratio and cash payout ratio are on the higher end at 81% and 76% respectively. Trailing yield: 4.1%. Lower than top quartile of Romanian dividend payers (6.1%). Higher than average of industry peers (2.2%). New Risk • May 17
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 4.6% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows. Payout ratio: 139% Cash payout ratio: 93% Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 4.6% per year for the foreseeable future. Reported Earnings • May 17
First quarter 2026 earnings released: EPS: RON2.91 (vs RON1.31 in 1Q 2025) First quarter 2026 results: EPS: RON2.91 (up from RON1.31 in 1Q 2025). Revenue: RON3.13b (up 66% from 1Q 2025). Net income: RON1.31b (up 122% from 1Q 2025). Profit margin: 42% (up from 31% in 1Q 2025). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 5.9% growth forecast for the Renewable Energy industry in Europe. Announcement • May 15
S.P.E.E.H. Hidroelectrica S.A. to Report Q1, 2026 Results on May 14, 2026 S.P.E.E.H. Hidroelectrica S.A. announced that they will report Q1, 2026 results on May 14, 2026 Announcement • Apr 29
S.P.E.E.H. Hidroelectrica S.A., Annual General Meeting, Apr 28, 2026 S.P.E.E.H. Hidroelectrica S.A., Annual General Meeting, Apr 28, 2026, at 12:00 E. Europe Standard Time. Location: company headquarters located at 15 17, ion mihalache boulevard, 10th floor, meeting room, district 1, bucharest., bucharest Romania Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Apr 17
Now 20% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 20% to RON159. The fair value is estimated to be RON199, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 8.1% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 20%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 1.2% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 1.4% per annum over the same time period. Reported Earnings • Mar 30
Full year 2025 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Full year 2025 results: EPS: RON7.49 (down from RON9.18 in FY 2024). Revenue: RON9.65b (up 5.1% from FY 2024). Net income: RON3.37b (down 18% from FY 2024). Profit margin: 35% (down from 45% in FY 2024). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 4.1%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 7.9%. Revenue is forecast to grow 1.4% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.9% growth forecast for the Renewable Energy industry in Europe. Announcement • Mar 27
S.P.E.E.H. Hidroelectrica S.A. announces Annual dividend, payable on June 25, 2026 S.P.E.E.H. Hidroelectrica S.A. announced Annual dividend of RON 7.3484 per share payable on June 25, 2026, ex-date on June 03, 2026 and record date on June 04, 2026. Major Estimate Revision • Feb 13
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 11% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 EPS estimate increased from RON7.16 to RON7.97. Revenue forecast steady at RON9.24b. Net income forecast to grow 46% next year vs 5.3% growth forecast for Renewable Energy industry in Romania. Consensus price target of RON113 unchanged from last update. Share price rose 3.7% to RON144 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Nov 21
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 14% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2025 has deteriorated. 2025 revenue forecast decreased from RON9.46b to RON9.18b. EPS estimate also fell from RON8.14 per share to RON6.97 per share. Net income forecast to grow 51% next year vs 53% growth forecast for Renewable Energy industry in Romania. Consensus price target of RON121 unchanged from last update. Share price was steady at RON120 over the past week. New Risk • Nov 18
New minor risk - Profit margin trend The company's profit margins are lower than last year and have reduced by more than 30%. Net profit margin: 33% Last year net profit margin: 48% This is considered a minor risk. A large drop in profit margin could indicate the company does not have strong competitive advantages or it is yet to establish itself and its core business. Even if it is a well established business, this may make it a much riskier investment than one that has a combination of proven competitive advantages and a stable or growing profit margin. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows. Payout ratio: 139% Cash payout ratio: 118% Minor Risk Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (33% net profit margin). Reported Earnings • Nov 18
Third quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: RON1.62 (vs RON1.87 in 3Q 2024) Third quarter 2025 results: EPS: RON1.62 (down from RON1.87 in 3Q 2024). Revenue: RON2.39b (up 17% from 3Q 2024). Net income: RON726.5m (down 14% from 3Q 2024). Profit margin: 30% (down from 41% in 3Q 2024). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 4.4% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.1% growth forecast for the Renewable Energy industry in Europe. Reported Earnings • Aug 14
Second quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: RON2.22 (vs RON3.04 in 2Q 2024) Second quarter 2025 results: EPS: RON2.22 (down from RON3.04 in 2Q 2024). Revenue: RON2.45b (down 5.6% from 2Q 2024). Net income: RON998.2m (down 27% from 2Q 2024). Profit margin: 41% (down from 53% in 2Q 2024). The decrease in margin was primarily driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.8% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 2.4% growth forecast for the Renewable Energy industry in Europe. Upcoming Dividend • May 27
Upcoming dividend of RON8.99 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 03 June 2025. Payment date: 25 June 2025. The company is paying out more than 100% of its profits and is paying out 88% of its cash flow. Trailing yield: 7.3%. Within top quartile of Romanian dividend payers (7.0%). Higher than average of industry peers (3.9%). Announcement • May 22
S.P.E.E.H. Hidroelectrica S.A. Announces Litigation Updates Electrica informs the shareholders that its subsidiary, Distributie Energie Electrica Romania S.A. (DEER), has been introduced as a party in case no. 37417/3/2024 pending before the Bucharest Tribunal. This case was initiated by Romcab S.A., a company in insolvency, in the judicial reorganization stage, as plaintiff, and has SPEEH Hidroelectrica S.A. as the initial defendant. The object of the action is represented by the following claims made by Romcab: to order the defendant Hidroelectrica to return the amount of RON 17,035,525, representing the value of the payments made by Romcab and reversed by the defendant; to order the defendant Hidroelectrica, pursuant to art. 3 of G.O. no. 13/2011, to pay the penalty interest, calculated from the date of issuance of the reversal invoices and until the actual refund/payment of the amount claimed; order the defendants to pay the amount of RON 1,509,285,516.46 provisionally estimated, updated on the basis of the inflation index to which is added the legal penalty interest, calculated according to art. 3 of G.O. no. 13/2011, representing the equivalent value of the damage caused to Romcab, as a result of the repeated interruptions of the electricity supply and, at the same time, as a result of the supply/distribution of electricity at performance indicators that contravene the Standard for the electricity distribution service approved by ANRE. The litigation is based on the tort civil liabilityfor the alleged non-compliance with the performance indicators of the electricity distribution service, in accordance with the provisions of the Performance Standard approved by ANRE Order no. 46/2021. Reported Earnings • May 15
First quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: RON1.31 (vs RON2.95 in 1Q 2024) First quarter 2025 results: EPS: RON1.31 (down from RON2.95 in 1Q 2024). Revenue: RON1.89b (down 26% from 1Q 2024). Net income: RON589.2m (down 56% from 1Q 2024). Profit margin: 31% (down from 52% in 1Q 2024). The decrease in margin was primarily driven by lower revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 9.9% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Renewable Energy industry in Europe are expected to remain flat. Declared Dividend • Mar 30
Dividend reduced to RON8.99 Dividend of RON8.99 is 36% lower than last year. Ex-date: 3rd June 2025 Payment date: 25th June 2025 Dividend yield will be 7.3%, which is higher than the industry average of 3.2%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is not covered by earnings (134% earnings payout ratio) nor is it adequately covered by cash flows (96% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 20% per year over the past 2 years and payments have been stable during that time. The company's earnings per share (EPS) would need to grow by 48% to bring the payout ratio under control. However, EPS is expected to decline by 5.4% over the next 2 years, which means the dividend may need to be reduced to reach a sustainable payout ratio. Announcement • Mar 28
S.P.E.E.H. Hidroelectrica S.A. announces Annual dividend, payable on June 25, 2025 S.P.E.E.H. Hidroelectrica S.A. announced Annual dividend of RON 8.9889 per share payable on June 25, 2025, ex-date on June 03, 2025 and record date on June 04, 2025. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Mar 21
Now 22% overvalued The stock has been flat over the last 90 days, currently trading at RON121. The fair value is estimated to be RON99.49, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 13% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 14%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to decline by 0.3% per annum. Earnings are forecast to grow by 0.5% per annum over the same time period. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Mar 05
Now 20% overvalued The stock has been flat over the last 90 days, currently trading at RON120. The fair value is estimated to be RON99.49, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 13% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 14%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to decline by 0.3% per annum. Earnings are forecast to grow by 0.5% per annum over the same time period. Announcement • Feb 26
S.P.E.E.H. Hidroelectrica S.A., Annual General Meeting, Mar 31, 2025 S.P.E.E.H. Hidroelectrica S.A., Annual General Meeting, Mar 31, 2025, at 12:00 E. Europe Standard Time. Location: at romexpo, 65-67, marasti blvd., titulescu hall, pavilion b3, district 1, bucharest., Romania Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jan 22
Now 20% overvalued The stock has been flat over the last 90 days, currently trading at RON124. The fair value is estimated to be RON103, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 13% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 14%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to decline by 1.7% per annum. Earnings are forecast to grow by 0.02% per annum over the same time period. Reported Earnings • Nov 17
Third quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: RON1.87 (vs RON2.76 in 3Q 2023) Third quarter 2024 results: EPS: RON1.87 (down from RON2.76 in 3Q 2023). Revenue: RON2.19b (down 15% from 3Q 2023). Net income: RON841.8m (down 32% from 3Q 2023). Profit margin: 38% (down from 48% in 3Q 2023). Revenue is expected to decline by 3.2% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Renewable Energy industry in Europe are expected to grow by 6.7%. Reported Earnings • Aug 15
Second quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: RON2.95 (vs RON4.95 in 2Q 2023) Second quarter 2024 results: EPS: RON2.95 (down from RON4.95 in 2Q 2023). Revenue: RON2.62b (down 29% from 2Q 2023). Net income: RON1.36b (down 39% from 2Q 2023). Profit margin: 52% (down from 60% in 2Q 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue is expected to decline by 4.1% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Renewable Energy industry in Europe are expected to grow by 6.7%. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • May 29
Now 22% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 7.9% to RON134. The fair value is estimated to be RON171, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 12% over the last year. Earnings per share has grown by 22%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to decline by 2.0% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to decline by 2.2% per annum over the same time period. Reported Earnings • May 16
First quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: RON2.95 (vs RON3.84 in 1Q 2023) First quarter 2024 results: EPS: RON2.95 (down from RON3.84 in 1Q 2023). Revenue: RON2.55b (down 22% from 1Q 2023). Net income: RON1.33b (down 23% from 1Q 2023). Profit margin: 52% (in line with 1Q 2023). Revenue is expected to decline by 2.4% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Renewable Energy industry in Europe are expected to grow by 4.6%. Announcement • Mar 13
S.P.E.E.H. Hidroelectrica S.A. (BVB:H2O) completed the acquisition of All assets of S.C. U.C.M. Resita S.A. S.P.E.E.H. Hidroelectrica S.A. (BVB:H2O) signed a framework agreement to acquire All assets of S.C. U.C.M. Resita S.A. for RON 67.9 million on December 8, 2023. Under the terms of agreement, The total price for the transfer of ownership of the Business and of all assets pertaining to the Transaction perimeter is RON 67.88 million. The Business Transfer includes the takeover of: ABC industrial production platform and partially Calnicel production platform, specialists in the field of engineering design, technology, and execution, projects know-how and documentation from its own archive and assets/equipment with machine tools and machinery necessary for executing both new, complex equipment, as well as repairs and refurbishment of equipment in operation. The Transaction will be completed following the fulfillment of the conditions precedent, which include, among others, the approval by the shareholders within Hidroelectrica’s GMS.
S.P.E.E.H. Hidroelectrica S.A. (BVB:H2O) completed the acquisition of All assets of S.C. U.C.M. Resita S.A. on March 11, 2024. Reported Earnings • Feb 29
Full year 2023 earnings released: EPS: RON14.09 (vs RON9.95 in FY 2022) Full year 2023 results: EPS: RON14.09 (up from RON9.95 in FY 2022). Revenue: RON12.3b (up 30% from FY 2022). Net income: RON6.34b (up 42% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 52% (up from 47% in FY 2022). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is expected to decline by 4.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Renewable Energy industry in Europe are expected to grow by 8.5%. Reported Earnings • Nov 16
Third quarter 2023 earnings released Third quarter 2023 results: EPS: RON2.76. Net income: RON1.24b (up RON1.24b from 3Q 2022). Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 9.0% growth forecast for the Renewable Energy industry in Europe. Reported Earnings • Aug 20
Second quarter 2023 earnings released Second quarter 2023 results: EPS: RON4.95. Net income: RON2.22b (up RON2.22b from 2Q 2022). Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 6.9% growth forecast for the Renewable Energy industry in Europe.