Alro (BVB:ALR) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of ALR when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

ALR (RON1.33) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (RON2.07)

ALR fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	2/6
Future Growth	1/6
Past Performance	0/6
Financial Health	3/6
Dividends	0/6

ALR Stock Overview

Alro S.A., together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells aluminum in Romania and internationally.

Rewards

Trading at 35.6% below our estimate of its fair value

Revenue is forecast to grow 4.33% per year

Risk Analysis

Earnings have declined by 23.6% per year over past 5 years

Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow

Large one-off items impacting financial results

Profit margins (1.8%) are lower than last year (15%)

Alro Competitors

Alumil Rom Industry

BVB:ALU

RON53.8m

Teraplast

BVB:TRP

RON1.4b

SC Cemacon

BVB:CEON

RON226.5m

Hakudo

TSE:7637

JP¥29.3b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Alro
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	RON1.33
52 Week High	RON3.05
52 Week Low	RON1.28
Beta	0.86
1 Month Change	-5.00%
3 Month Change	-9.22%
1 Year Change	-53.17%
3 Year Change	-42.17%
5 Year Change	-34.16%
Change since IPO	619.76%

Shareholder Returns

	ALR	RO Metals and Mining	RO Market
7D	0.8%	1.4%	1.0%
1Y	-53.2%	-20.1%	8.0%

Return vs Industry: ALR underperformed the RO Metals and Mining industry which returned -20.8% over the past year.

Return vs Market: ALR underperformed the RO Market which returned 9.5% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is ALR's price volatile compared to industry and market?
ALR volatility
ALR Average Weekly Movement	2.8%
Metals and Mining Industry Average Movement	6.7%
Market Average Movement	3.7%
10% most volatile stocks in RO Market	6.5%
10% least volatile stocks in RO Market	2.7%

Stable Share Price: ALR is less volatile than 75% of RO stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 3% a week.

Volatility Over Time: ALR's weekly volatility (3%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1961	3,990	Gheorghe Dobra	https://www.alro.ro

Alro S.A., together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells aluminum in Romania and internationally. The company offers primary aluminum products, including wires rods, slabs, billets, and ingots. It also provides processed aluminum products, such as hot rolled coils that are used as raw materials for the cold rolling mill; corrugated, heat treated, and embossed sheets; heat treated and non-heat treated plates; standard and customer profiles; and extruded products.

Alro Fundamentals Summary

How do Alro's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
ALR fundamental statistics
Market Cap	RON949.33m
Earnings (TTM)	RON70.18m
Revenue (TTM)	RON3.86b

13.5x

P/E Ratio

0.2x

P/S Ratio

Is ALR overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
ALR income statement (TTM)
Revenue	RON3.86b
Cost of Revenue	RON3.33b
Gross Profit	RON524.74m
Other Expenses	RON454.56m
Earnings	RON70.18m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

Aug 10, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)	0.098
Gross Margin	13.60%
Net Profit Margin	1.82%
Debt/Equity Ratio	127.8%

How did ALR perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is ALR undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ALR?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for ALR. This is calculated by dividing ALR's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is ALR's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	RON949.33m

ALR key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.6x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	6x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ALR's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

ALR PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for ALR vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	6.8x
ALU Alumil Rom Industry	7x	n/a	RON53.8m
TRP Teraplast	6.2x	-6.8%	RON1.4b
CEON SC Cemacon	4.1x	n/a	RON226.5m
7637 Hakudo	10x	n/a	JP¥29.3b
ALR Alro	13.5x	n/a	RON949.3m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ALR is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.5x) compared to the peer average (6.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ALR's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Metals and Mining Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ALR is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.5x) compared to the European Metals and Mining industry average (5.3x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ALR's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ALR PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	13.5x
Fair PE Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate ALR's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ALR when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ALR (RON1.33) is trading below our estimate of fair value (RON2.07)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ALR is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but there are not enough analysts covering the stock to determine statistical confidence in agreement.

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Future Growth

How is Alro forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 1 analyst?

Future Growth Score

1/6

Future Growth Score 1/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

4.3%

Forecasted annual revenue growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: Insufficient data to determine if ALR's forecast earnings growth is above the savings rate (1.1%).

Earnings vs Market: Insufficient data to determine if ALR's earnings are forecast to grow faster than the RO market

High Growth Earnings: Insufficient data to determine if ALR's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: ALR's revenue (4.3% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the RO market (4.2% per year).

High Growth Revenue: ALR's revenue (4.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: ALR's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (12%).

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Past Performance

How has Alro performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

0/6

Past Performance Score 0/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

-23.6%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: ALR has a large one-off gain of RON31.6M impacting its March 31 2022 financial results.

Growing Profit Margin: ALR's current net profit margins (1.8%) are lower than last year (15%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: ALR's earnings have declined by 23.6% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: ALR's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: ALR had negative earnings growth (-81.7%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Metals and Mining industry average (94.3%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: ALR's Return on Equity (6.4%) is considered low.

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Financial Health

How is Alro's financial position?

Financial Health Score

3/6

Financial Health Score 3/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: ALR's short term assets (RON1.6B) exceed its short term liabilities (RON549.4M).

Long Term Liabilities: ALR's short term assets (RON1.6B) exceed its long term liabilities (RON1.4B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: ALR's net debt to equity ratio (115%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: ALR's debt to equity ratio has increased from 116% to 127.8% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: ALR's operating cash flow is negative, therefore debt is not well covered.

Interest Coverage: ALR's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (5.6x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Alro current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate ALR's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate ALR's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if ALR's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if ALR's dividend payments have been increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: ALR is not paying a notable dividend for the RO market.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as ALR has not reported any payouts.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

5.8yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Gheorghe Dobra (63 yo)

29.58yrs

Tenure

RON2,844,000

Compensation

Mr. Gheorghe Dobra is the Chief Executive Officer of Vimetco N.V. and the General Manager of Alro S.A. (“Alro”) He was appointed as Acting CEO of the Company in June 2011, and as CEO of the Company in Janu...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Insufficient data to establish whether Gheorghe's total compensation is reasonable compared to companies of similar size in the RO market.

Compensation vs Earnings: Gheorghe's compensation has increased by more than 20% whilst company earnings have fallen more than 20% in the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: ALR's management team is seasoned and experienced (5.8 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: ALR's board of directors are considered experienced (3.3 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/08/08 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/08/08 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31