What underlying fundamental trends can indicate that a company might be in decline? Businesses in decline often have two underlying trends, firstly, a declining return on capital employed (ROCE) and a declining base of capital employed. This indicates to us that the business is not only shrinking the size of its net assets, but its returns are falling as well. So after we looked into Oil Terminal (BVB:OIL), the trends above didn't look too great.
What is Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)?
If you haven't worked with ROCE before, it measures the 'return' (pre-tax profit) a company generates from capital employed in its business. To calculate this metric for Oil Terminal, this is the formula:
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
0.017 = RON9.5m ÷ (RON594m - RON36m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2021).
Thus, Oil Terminal has an ROCE of 1.7%. In absolute terms, that's a low return and it also under-performs the Oil and Gas industry average of 8.4%.
Check out our latest analysis for Oil Terminal
While the past is not representative of the future, it can be helpful to know how a company has performed historically, which is why we have this chart above. If you're interested in investigating Oil Terminal's past further, check out this free graph of past earnings, revenue and cash flow.
What The Trend Of ROCE Can Tell Us
There is reason to be cautious about Oil Terminal, given the returns are trending downwards. Unfortunately the returns on capital have diminished from the 3.8% that they were earning five years ago. On top of that, it's worth noting that the amount of capital employed within the business has remained relatively steady. Companies that exhibit these attributes tend to not be shrinking, but they can be mature and facing pressure on their margins from competition. If these trends continue, we wouldn't expect Oil Terminal to turn into a multi-bagger.
The Bottom Line
In summary, it's unfortunate that Oil Terminal is generating lower returns from the same amount of capital. Despite the concerning underlying trends, the stock has actually gained 36% over the last five years, so it might be that the investors are expecting the trends to reverse. Regardless, we don't like the trends as they are and if they persist, we think you might find better investments elsewhere.
On a final note, we found 2 warning signs for Oil Terminal (1 is a bit concerning) you should be aware of.
While Oil Terminal isn't earning the highest return, check out this free list of companies that are earning high returns on equity with solid balance sheets.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About BVB:OIL
Oil Terminal
Operates a terminal for import, export, and transit of crude oil, petroleum, petrochemical, liquid chemical products, and other supply services in south-eastern Europe.
Solid track record with adequate balance sheet.