Stock Analysis

An Intrinsic Calculation For Vodafone Qatar P.Q.S.C. (DSM:VFQS) Suggests It's 44% Undervalued

DSM:VFQS
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How far off is Vodafone Qatar P.Q.S.C. (DSM:VFQS) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

See our latest analysis for Vodafone Qatar P.Q.S.C

Is Vodafone Qatar P.Q.S.C fairly valued?

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
Levered FCF (QAR, Millions) ر.ق376.0m ر.ق519.0m ر.ق569.0m ر.ق617.9m ر.ق671.7m ر.ق730.7m ر.ق795.2m ر.ق865.8m ر.ق942.8m ر.ق1.03b
Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Est @ 8.59% Est @ 8.7% Est @ 8.78% Est @ 8.83% Est @ 8.87% Est @ 8.9% Est @ 8.92%
Present Value (QAR, Millions) Discounted @ 13% ر.ق333 ر.ق408 ر.ق396 ر.ق381 ر.ق367 ر.ق354 ر.ق342 ر.ق330 ر.ق318 ر.ق307

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = ر.ق3.5b

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (9.0%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 13%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2031 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = ر.ق1.0b× (1 + 9.0%) ÷ (13%– 9.0%) = ر.ق29b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= ر.ق29b÷ ( 1 + 13%)10= ر.ق8.6b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is ر.ق12b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of ر.ق1.6, the company appears quite undervalued at a 44% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

dcf
DSM:VFQS Discounted Cash Flow May 13th 2022

Important assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Vodafone Qatar P.Q.S.C as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 13%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Moving On:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. Why is the intrinsic value higher than the current share price? For Vodafone Qatar P.Q.S.C, there are three important factors you should explore:

  1. Risks: For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Vodafone Qatar P.Q.S.C that you should be aware of.
  2. Future Earnings: How does VFQS's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the DSM every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Vodafone Qatar P.Q.S.C is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.