EDP, S.A. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

EDP, S.A. (ELI:EDP) missed earnings with its latest interim results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at €7.7b, statutory earnings missed forecasts by 13%, coming in at just €0.067 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on EDP after the latest results.

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Taking into account the latest results, EDP's 15 analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be €15.2b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 64% to €0.30. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €15.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.30 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for EDP

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of €4.20, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values EDP at €5.95 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €3.50. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await EDP shareholders.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 3.2% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 3.6% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 2.6% per year. It's pretty clear that EDP's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for EDP going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 3 warning signs for EDP (2 make us uncomfortable!) that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.