Jerónimo Martins (ENXTLS:JMT) Is Up 10.8% After Q3 Earnings Beat and Store Growth in Poland

• Jerónimo Martins SGPS recently reported its third quarter 2025 results, delivering higher-than-expected earnings and revenues while expanding its store base by 274 locations, especially strengthening its presence in Poland.
• This performance highlights the company's ability to maintain price leadership and continue gaining market share, even in the face of high cost inflation and increased competition.
• We’ll examine how strong earnings and market share gains in Poland may influence the company’s investment narrative and outlook.

Find companies with promising cash flow potential yet trading below their fair value.

Jerónimo Martins SGPS Investment Narrative Recap

To own Jerónimo Martins SGPS, investors need to believe in the company's ability to drive growth through continued store expansion and price leadership, particularly in Poland, while managing cost pressures in a highly competitive food retail market. The latest quarterly results, marked by higher-than-expected earnings and a significant boost in store openings, reinforce the near-term catalyst of market share gains in Central and Eastern Europe, though concerns around rising operating expenses remain material for the outlook.

The Q3 2025 results are especially relevant since they showcase both rising revenues and expanding earnings, supported by the addition of 274 new stores mostly in Poland. This aligns closely with management's focus on scaling operations to support revenue growth and leverage operational efficiencies, an approach crucial as wage and inflation challenges continue to put pressure on profit margins.

However, despite the upbeat results and investor optimism, it’s important to remember that if labor costs in Poland and Portugal keep climbing faster than sales growth ...

Read the full narrative on Jerónimo Martins SGPS (it's free!)

Jerónimo Martins SGPS is projected to reach €42.2 billion in revenue and €942.1 million in earnings by 2028. This outlook requires annual revenue growth of 6.9% and an increase in earnings of €327.1 million from the current €615.0 million.

Uncover how Jerónimo Martins SGPS' forecasts yield a €25.07 fair value, a 12% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Four different fair value opinions from the Simply Wall St Community put Jerónimo Martins SGPS between €20.38 and €27.56 per share. While some see upside, the ongoing risk of margin pressure from rising wage costs may impact the company's ability to build on its recent momentum, so consider a range of viewpoints.

Explore 4 other fair value estimates on Jerónimo Martins SGPS - why the stock might be worth 9% less than the current price!

Build Your Own Jerónimo Martins SGPS Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Jerónimo Martins SGPS research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Jerónimo Martins SGPS research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Jerónimo Martins SGPS' overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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