Solid Earnings May Not Tell The Whole Story For ZE PAK (WSE:ZEP)

The recent earnings posted by ZE PAK SA (WSE:ZEP) were solid, but the stock didn't move as much as we expected. We believe that shareholders have noticed some concerning factors beyond the statutory profit numbers.

View our latest analysis for ZE PAK

Zooming In On ZE PAK's Earnings

As finance nerds would already know, the accrual ratio from cashflow is a key measure for assessing how well a company's free cash flow (FCF) matches its profit. In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.

That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".

For the year to December 2023, ZE PAK had an accrual ratio of 1.01. Statistically speaking, that's a real negative for future earnings. To wit, the company did not generate one whit of free cashflow in that time. In the last twelve months it actually had negative free cash flow, with an outflow of zł322m despite its profit of zł722.7m, mentioned above. Coming off the back of negative free cash flow last year, we imagine some shareholders might wonder if its cash burn of zł322m, this year, indicates high risk.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

Our Take On ZE PAK's Profit Performance

As we discussed above, we think ZE PAK's earnings were not supported by free cash flow, which might concern some investors. For this reason, we think that ZE PAK's statutory profits may be a bad guide to its underlying earnings power, and might give investors an overly positive impression of the company. The silver lining is that its EPS growth over the last year has been really wonderful, even if it's not a perfect measure. At the end of the day, it's essential to consider more than just the factors above, if you want to understand the company properly. If you want to do dive deeper into ZE PAK, you'd also look into what risks it is currently facing. At Simply Wall St, we found 2 warning signs for ZE PAK and we think they deserve your attention.

Today we've zoomed in on a single data point to better understand the nature of ZE PAK's profit. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying to be useful.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.