The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. As with many other companies MDI Energia S.A. (WSE:MDI) makes use of debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
When Is Debt A Problem?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
Check out our latest analysis for MDI Energia
What Is MDI Energia's Debt?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at September 2020 MDI Energia had debt of zł44.8m, up from zł36.3m in one year. And it doesn't have much cash, so its net debt is about the same.
How Strong Is MDI Energia's Balance Sheet?
According to the last reported balance sheet, MDI Energia had liabilities of zł94.1m due within 12 months, and liabilities of zł9.42m due beyond 12 months. Offsetting this, it had zł475.0k in cash and zł124.1m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it actually has zł21.1m more liquid assets than total liabilities.
This short term liquidity is a sign that MDI Energia could probably pay off its debt with ease, as its balance sheet is far from stretched.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
MDI Energia has a rather high debt to EBITDA ratio of 7.3 which suggests a meaningful debt load. However, its interest coverage of 3.2 is reasonably strong, which is a good sign. On a lighter note, we note that MDI Energia grew its EBIT by 30% in the last year. If sustained, this growth should make that debt evaporate like a scarce drinking water during an unnaturally hot summer. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is MDI Energia's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Over the last three years, MDI Energia saw substantial negative free cash flow, in total. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.
Our View
MDI Energia's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow was a real negative on this analysis, as was its net debt to EBITDA. But like a ballerina ending on a perfect pirouette, it has not trouble growing its EBIT. When we consider all the factors mentioned above, we do feel a bit cautious about MDI Energia's use of debt. While we appreciate debt can enhance returns on equity, we'd suggest that shareholders keep close watch on its debt levels, lest they increase. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Take risks, for example - MDI Energia has 3 warning signs (and 2 which can't be ignored) we think you should know about.
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
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About WSE:MDI
MDI Energia
Engages in the renewable energy business in Poland and internationally.
Flawless balance sheet and slightly overvalued.