Moliera2 (WSE:MO2) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of MO2 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

MO2 (PLN0.24) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (PLN0.51)

MO2 fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	4/6
Future Growth	0/6
Past Performance	0/6
Financial Health	6/6
Dividends	0/6

MO2 Stock Overview

Moliera2 SA operates as an online retailer in Poland.

Rewards

Trading at 52.7% below our estimate of its fair value

Risk Analysis

Highly volatile share price over the past 3 months

Shareholders have been substantially diluted in the past year

Does not have a meaningful market cap (PLN92M)

Moliera2 Competitors

FinTech Ventures

WSE:FIV

zł31.7m

Medicofarma Biotech

WSE:MDB

zł83.3m

Dadelo

WSE:DAD

zł131.5m

Merlin Group

WSE:MRG

zł69.9m

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Moliera2
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	zł0.24
52 Week High	zł2.16
52 Week Low	zł0.15
Beta	4.66
1 Month Change	20.00%
3 Month Change	-14.29%
1 Year Change	-86.81%
3 Year Change	50.00%
5 Year Change	-65.71%
Change since IPO	-91.67%

Recent News & Updates

Jun 12

Is Moliera2 (WSE:MO2) A Risky Investment?

Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' It's only natural to consider a company's...

Feb 22

We Think Modern Commerce (WSE:MCE) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says...

Shareholder Returns

	MO2	PL Online Retail	PL Market
7D	0.8%	3.0%	-2.1%
1Y	-86.8%	-58.9%	-23.4%

Return vs Industry: MO2 underperformed the Polish Online Retail industry which returned -58.9% over the past year.

Return vs Market: MO2 underperformed the Polish Market which returned -23.4% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is MO2's price volatile compared to industry and market?
MO2 volatility
MO2 Average Weekly Movement	21.4%
Online Retail Industry Average Movement	7.2%
Market Average Movement	6.6%
10% most volatile stocks in PL Market	12.0%
10% least volatile stocks in PL Market	4.2%

Stable Share Price: MO2 is more volatile than 90% of Polish stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 21% a week.

Volatility Over Time: MO2's weekly volatility (21%) has been stable over the past year, but is still higher than 75% of Polish stocks.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
2010	206	Marcin Michnicki	https://moderncommercesa.com

Moliera2 SA operates as an online retailer in Poland. It operates various websites, such as Moliera2.com, which offers a range of products and brands; zlotewyprzedaze.pl, a sell-out online shop; Mamissima.pl, an online shop, which provides toys, textiles, and accessories for children and parents; and Rebel Tang that enables its partners to open a virtual restaurant. The company was formerly known as Modern Commerce S.A. and changed its name to Moliera2 SA in April 2022.

Moliera2 Fundamentals Summary

How do Moliera2's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
MO2 fundamental statistics
Market Cap	zł91.52m
Earnings (TTM)	-zł4.79m
Revenue (TTM)	zł43.79m

2.1x

P/S Ratio

-19.1x

P/E Ratio

Is MO2 overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
MO2 income statement (TTM)
Revenue	zł43.79m
Cost of Revenue	zł33.73m
Gross Profit	zł10.06m
Other Expenses	zł14.86m
Earnings	-zł4.79m

Last Reported Earnings

Dec 31, 2021

Next Earnings Date

Aug 12, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)	-0.013
Gross Margin	22.98%
Net Profit Margin	-10.95%
Debt/Equity Ratio	10.2%

How did MO2 perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is MO2 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MO2?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for MO2. This is calculated by dividing MO2's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is MO2's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	zł91.52m

MO2 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	2.2x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	61.1x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does MO2's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

MO2 PS Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PS ratio for MO2 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PS	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	8.7x
FIV FinTech Ventures	14.8x	n/a	zł31.7m
MDB Medicofarma Biotech	14.8x	n/a	zł83.3m
DAD Dadelo	1.5x	n/a	zł131.5m
MRG Merlin Group	3.8x	n/a	zł69.9m
MO2 Moliera2	2.1x	n/a	zł91.5m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: MO2 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.1x) compared to the peer average (8.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MO2's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Online Retail Industry?

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: MO2 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.1x) compared to the Polish Online Retail industry average (3.8x)

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MO2's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MO2 PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio	2.1x
Fair PS Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate MO2's Price-To-Sales Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MO2 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MO2 (PLN0.24) is trading below our estimate of fair value (PLN0.51)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MO2 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Insufficient data to show price forecast.

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Future Growth

How is Moliera2 forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 0 analysts?

Future Growth Score

0/6

Future Growth Score 0/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

-21.9%

Forecasted Retail industry annual growth in earnings

In this section we usually present revenue and earnings growth projections based on the consensus estimates of professional analysts to help investors understand the company’s ability to generate profit. But as Moliera2 has not provided enough past data and has no analyst forecast, its future earnings cannot be reliably calculated by extrapolating past data or using analyst predictions.

This is quite a rare situation as 97% of companies covered by SimplyWall St do have past financial data.

Discover growth companies

Examine whether Moliera2 is trading at an attractive price based on how much it is expected to earn in the future, and relative to its industry peers and the wider market.
Moliera2 competitive advantages and company strategy can generally be found in its financial reports archived here.

Past Performance

How has Moliera2 performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

0/6

Past Performance Score 0/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

31.7%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: MO2 is currently unprofitable.

Growing Profit Margin: MO2 is currently unprofitable.

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: MO2 is unprofitable, but has reduced losses over the past 5 years at a rate of 31.7% per year.

Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare MO2's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable

Earnings vs Industry: MO2 is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Online Retail industry (18.7%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: MO2 has a negative Return on Equity (-3.83%), as it is currently unprofitable.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is Moliera2's financial position?

Financial Health Score

6/6

Financial Health Score 6/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Stable Cash Runway
Forecast Cash Runway

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: MO2's short term assets (PLN69.2M) exceed its short term liabilities (PLN25.1M).

Long Term Liabilities: MO2's short term assets (PLN69.2M) exceed its long term liabilities (PLN5.4M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: MO2's net debt to equity ratio (3.7%) is considered satisfactory.

Reducing Debt: MO2's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 16.7% to 10.2% over the past 5 years.

Balance Sheet

Cash Runway Analysis

For companies that have on average been loss making in the past we assess whether they have at least 1 year of cash runway.

Stable Cash Runway: Whilst unprofitable MO2 has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years if it maintains its current positive free cash flow level.

Forecast Cash Runway: MO2 is unprofitable but has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years, due to free cash flow being positive and growing by 54.5% per year.

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Dividend

What is Moliera2 current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate MO2's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate MO2's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if MO2's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if MO2's dividend payments have been increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as MO2 has not reported any payouts.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

0.6yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Marcin Michnicki

0.58

Tenure

Mr. Marcin Marek Michnicki serves as Member of Management Board at Moliera2 SA (formerly known as Modern Commerce S.A.) and also serves as its Chairman of Management Board since 2022. Mr. Michnicki serves...

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: MO2's management team is not considered experienced ( 0.6 years average tenure), which suggests a new team.

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been substantially diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 136.7%.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/08/07 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/08/05 00:00
Earnings	2021/12/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31