Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. As with many other companies HM Inwest S.A. (WSE:HMI) makes use of debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
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How Much Debt Does HM Inwest Carry?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at September 2020 HM Inwest had debt of zł59.5m, up from zł54.0m in one year. However, because it has a cash reserve of zł20.6m, its net debt is less, at about zł39.0m.
A Look At HM Inwest's Liabilities
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that HM Inwest had liabilities of zł142.1m falling due within a year, and liabilities of zł50.7m due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had zł20.6m in cash and zł8.55m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities total zł163.8m more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
This deficit casts a shadow over the zł25.2m company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. At the end of the day, HM Inwest would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
HM Inwest's net debt is sitting at a very reasonable 1.6 times its EBITDA, while its EBIT covered its interest expense just 4.1 times last year. While that doesn't worry us too much, it does suggest the interest payments are somewhat of a burden. We also note that HM Inwest improved its EBIT from a last year's loss to a positive zł21m. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since HM Inwest will need earnings to service that debt. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of the earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) is backed by free cash flow. During the last year, HM Inwest generated free cash flow amounting to a very robust 88% of its EBIT, more than we'd expect. That puts it in a very strong position to pay down debt.
Our View
Mulling over HM Inwest's attempt at staying on top of its total liabilities, we're certainly not enthusiastic. But on the bright side, its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. Looking at the balance sheet and taking into account all these factors, we do believe that debt is making HM Inwest stock a bit risky. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but we'd generally feel more comfortable with less leverage. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Take risks, for example - HM Inwest has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
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About WSE:HMI
HM Inwest
Engages in the investment, development, and sale of real estate properties in Poland.
Proven track record slight.