Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. As with many other companies Ambra S.A. (WSE:AMB) makes use of debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
When Is Debt A Problem?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
See our latest analysis for Ambra
How Much Debt Does Ambra Carry?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that Ambra had zł82.3m of debt in December 2020, down from zł103.7m, one year before. However, it also had zł28.3m in cash, and so its net debt is zł54.0m.
How Strong Is Ambra's Balance Sheet?
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Ambra had liabilities of zł276.0m due within 12 months and liabilities of zł39.4m due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of zł28.3m as well as receivables valued at zł251.2m due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling zł35.9m more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
Since publicly traded Ambra shares are worth a total of zł461.3m, it seems unlikely that this level of liabilities would be a major threat. However, we do think it is worth keeping an eye on its balance sheet strength, as it may change over time.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
Ambra has a low net debt to EBITDA ratio of only 0.73. And its EBIT easily covers its interest expense, being 26.1 times the size. So you could argue it is no more threatened by its debt than an elephant is by a mouse. Ambra's EBIT was pretty flat over the last year, but that shouldn't be an issue given the it doesn't have a lot of debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Ambra's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. In the last three years, Ambra's free cash flow amounted to 43% of its EBIT, less than we'd expect. That weak cash conversion makes it more difficult to handle indebtedness.
Our View
Happily, Ambra's impressive interest cover implies it has the upper hand on its debt. And that's just the beginning of the good news since its net debt to EBITDA is also very heartening. All these things considered, it appears that Ambra can comfortably handle its current debt levels. On the plus side, this leverage can boost shareholder returns, but the potential downside is more risk of loss, so it's worth monitoring the balance sheet. Another positive for shareholders is that it pays dividends. So if you like receiving those dividend payments, check Ambra's dividend history, without delay!
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
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About WSE:AMB
Ambra
Engages in the manufacture, import, and distribution of grape wines in Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Romania.
Excellent balance sheet established dividend payer.