Mercedes-Benz Group Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of MBG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

MBG (PLN222.15) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (PLN408.77)

Is MBG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MBG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MBG (PLN222.15) is trading below our estimate of fair value (PLN408.77)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MBG is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MBG?

Key metric: As MBG is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for MBG. This is calculated by dividing MBG's market cap by their current earnings.
What is MBG's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	4.6x
Earnings	€10.84b
Market Cap	€49.81b

MBG key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	8.4x
PEG Ratio	2.7x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MBG's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MBG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	8.6x
P911 Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche	13.2x	11.3%	€52.5b
VOW3 Volkswagen	3.3x	9.6%	€41.7b
BMW Bayerische Motoren Werke	5.2x	5.6%	€42.3b
F Ford Motor	12.6x	19.7%	US$44.4b
MBG Mercedes-Benz Group	4.6x	1.7%	zł49.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MBG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4.6x) compared to the peer average (8.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MBG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Auto Industry?

2 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

2 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MBG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4.6x) compared to the Global Auto industry average (15.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MBG's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MBG PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	4.6x
Fair PE Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate MBG's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MBG forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	zł222.15	zł308.31 +38.8%	21.8%	zł487.03	zł195.68	n/a	22
Nov ’25	zł244.60	zł311.07 +27.2%	21.3%	zł487.64	zł195.93	n/a	22
Oct ’25	zł242.55	zł316.26 +30.4%	21.4%	zł476.53	zł208.48	n/a	22
Sep ’25	zł266.75	zł355.12 +33.1%	20.2%	zł535.41	zł235.58	n/a	22
Aug ’25	zł258.00	zł357.99 +38.8%	20.2%	zł536.49	zł236.06	n/a	22
Jul ’25	zł282.45	zł378.05 +33.8%	17.7%	zł540.08	zł259.24	n/a	22
Jun ’25	zł284.95	zł372.61 +30.8%	17.6%	zł531.47	zł255.10	n/a	22
May ’25	zł314.00	zł375.57 +19.6%	18.2%	zł540.74	zł259.55	n/a	22
Apr ’25	zł315.90	zł366.71 +16.1%	18.5%	zł536.98	zł257.75	n/a	22
Mar ’25	zł309.35	zł360.61 +16.6%	19.6%	zł538.30	zł258.38	n/a	23
Feb ’25	zł273.85	zł342.54 +25.1%	21.2%	zł504.36	zł217.40	n/a	23
Jan ’25	zł273.40	zł341.99 +25.1%	21.9%	zł515.70	zł214.88	n/a	22
Dec ’24	zł259.20	zł353.39 +36.3%	20.9%	zł524.13	zł218.39	n/a	22
Nov ’24	zł248.00	zł372.58 +50.2%	19.3%	zł533.84	zł222.43	zł244.60	22
Oct ’24	zł307.20	zł415.67 +35.3%	14.6%	zł552.83	zł322.49	zł242.55	22
Sep ’24	zł298.15	zł404.65 +35.7%	14.0%	zł536.29	zł312.83	zł266.75	22
Aug ’24	n/a	zł411.55 0%	12.8%	zł533.64	zł326.86	zł258.00	22
Jul ’24	zł321.20	zł418.11 +30.2%	12.0%	zł521.60	zł333.37	zł282.45	22
Jun ’24	zł321.20	zł418.11 +30.2%	12.0%	zł521.60	zł333.37	zł284.95	22
May ’24	zł317.00	zł418.45 +32.0%	11.7%	zł527.43	zł330.22	zł314.00	23
Apr ’24	zł333.00	zł430.12 +29.2%	13.3%	zł539.18	zł328.20	zł315.90	23
Mar ’24	zł342.95	zł421.76 +23.0%	13.1%	zł542.20	zł330.03	zł309.35	22
Feb ’24	zł315.00	zł407.18 +29.3%	14.1%	zł541.33	zł305.97	zł273.85	22
Jan ’24	zł289.25	zł396.71 +37.2%	14.6%	zł538.68	zł304.47	zł273.40	22
Dec ’23	zł305.00	zł395.69 +29.7%	14.7%	zł537.58	zł303.85	zł259.20	22
Nov ’23	n/a	zł395.74 0%	15.2%	zł542.86	zł297.39	zł248.00	23

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.