Nishat (Chunian) Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of NCL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

NCL (PKR32.48) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (PKR124.87)

Is NCL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of NCL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: NCL (PKR32.48) is trading below our estimate of fair value (PKR124.87)

Significantly Below Fair Value: NCL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NCL?

Key metric: As NCL is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for NCL. This is calculated by dividing NCL's market cap by their current earnings.
What is NCL's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	33.8x
Earnings	PK₨230.59m
Market Cap	PK₨7.80b

NCL key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.5x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	5.1x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does NCL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for NCL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	5.9x
RCML Reliance Cotton Spinning Mills	4.7x	n/a	PK₨6.9b
SURC Suraj Cotton Mills	6.1x	n/a	PK₨5.8b
GADT Gadoon Textile Mills	5.9x	n/a	PK₨5.6b
JKSM J.K. Spinning Mills	6.9x	n/a	PK₨5.9b
NCL Nishat (Chunian)	33.8x	n/a	PK₨7.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: NCL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (33.8x) compared to the peer average (5.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does NCL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the PK Luxury Industry?

1 Company	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
BNWM Bannu Woollen Mills	1x	n/a	US$1.30m

No more companies available in this PE range

1 Company		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: NCL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (33.8x) compared to the PK Luxury industry average (8.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is NCL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

NCL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	33.8x
Fair PE Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate NCL's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst NCL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	PK₨32.48	PK₨32.05 -1.3%	15.8%	PK₨37.10	PK₨27.00	n/a	2
Nov ’25	PK₨28.87	PK₨32.05 +11.0%	15.8%	PK₨37.10	PK₨27.00	n/a	2
Oct ’25	PK₨23.89	PK₨32.05 +34.2%	15.8%	PK₨37.10	PK₨27.00	n/a	2
Sep ’25	PK₨23.53	PK₨37.65 +60.0%	3.6%	PK₨39.00	PK₨36.30	n/a	2
Aug ’25	PK₨25.76	PK₨37.65 +46.2%	3.6%	PK₨39.00	PK₨36.30	n/a	2
Jul ’25	PK₨25.53	PK₨37.65 +47.5%	3.6%	PK₨39.00	PK₨36.30	n/a	2
Jun ’25	PK₨29.30	PK₨37.65 +28.5%	3.6%	PK₨39.00	PK₨36.30	n/a	2
May ’25	PK₨25.50	PK₨37.65 +47.6%	3.6%	PK₨39.00	PK₨36.30	n/a	2
Apr ’25	PK₨23.31	PK₨37.50 +60.9%	4.0%	PK₨39.00	PK₨36.00	n/a	2
Mar ’25	PK₨23.95	PK₨37.50 +56.6%	4.0%	PK₨39.00	PK₨36.00	n/a	2
Feb ’25	PK₨26.65	PK₨34.35 +28.9%	4.8%	PK₨36.00	PK₨32.70	n/a	2
Nov ’24	PK₨25.00	PK₨33.85 +35.4%	3.4%	PK₨35.00	PK₨32.70	PK₨28.87	2
Oct ’24	PK₨20.49	PK₨33.85 +65.2%	3.4%	PK₨35.00	PK₨32.70	PK₨23.89	2
Sep ’24	PK₨20.51	PK₨31.23 +52.3%	12.2%	PK₨35.00	PK₨26.00	PK₨23.53	3
Aug ’24	PK₨23.54	PK₨36.18 +53.7%	25.4%	PK₨51.00	PK₨26.00	PK₨25.76	4
Jul ’24	PK₨20.30	PK₨36.18 +78.2%	25.4%	PK₨51.00	PK₨26.00	PK₨25.53	4
Jun ’24	PK₨21.01	PK₨36.18 +72.2%	25.4%	PK₨51.00	PK₨26.00	PK₨29.30	4
May ’24	PK₨21.14	PK₨36.18 +71.1%	25.4%	PK₨51.00	PK₨26.00	PK₨25.50	4
Apr ’24	PK₨20.70	PK₨36.93 +78.4%	24.8%	PK₨51.00	PK₨26.00	PK₨23.31	4
Mar ’24	PK₨20.23	PK₨36.93 +82.5%	24.8%	PK₨51.00	PK₨26.00	PK₨23.95	4
Feb ’24	PK₨22.29	PK₨45.23 +102.9%	31.3%	PK₨65.00	PK₨32.70	PK₨26.65	3
Jan ’24	PK₨20.84	PK₨51.50 +147.1%	26.2%	PK₨65.00	PK₨38.00	PK₨27.01	2
Dec ’23	PK₨26.61	PK₨51.50 +93.5%	26.2%	PK₨65.00	PK₨38.00	PK₨29.08	2
Nov ’23	PK₨28.67	PK₨57.67 +101.1%	24.4%	PK₨70.00	PK₨38.00	PK₨25.00	3

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.