We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Manila Water Company Valuation

Is MWC undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MWC?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

MWC key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue6.4x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA12.7x
PEG Ratio0.5x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MWC's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MWC vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average4.3x
FGEN First Gen
5.1x11.2%₱63.2b
SGP Synergy Grid & Development Phils
4.3x-8.9%₱57.9b
FPH First Philippine Holdings
2.7xn/a₱29.8b
LPZ Lopez Holdings
5xn/a₱16.9b
MWC Manila Water Company
13.4x26.6%₱64.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MWC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.4x) compared to the peer average (4.3x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MWC's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Water Utilities Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a10.8%
n/an/an/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MWC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.4x) compared to the Asian Water Utilities industry average (12.9x)


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MWC's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MWC PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio13.4x
Fair PE Ratio14.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MWC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.1x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MWC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MWC (₱19.7) is trading above our estimate of fair value (₱11.91)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MWC is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MWC forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current₱19.70
₱26.30
+33.5%
5.2%₱29.00₱25.20n/a5
Jan ’24₱19.10
₱26.30
+37.7%
5.2%₱29.00₱25.20n/a5
Dec ’23₱20.30
₱25.10
+23.6%
11.5%₱29.00₱20.00n/a5
Nov ’23₱16.34
₱18.98
+16.1%
26.8%₱25.80₱11.50n/a4
Oct ’23₱13.64
₱25.28
+85.3%
23.1%₱35.00₱18.60n/a5
Sep ’23₱15.04
₱25.28
+68.1%
23.1%₱35.00₱18.60n/a5
Aug ’23₱15.34
₱29.27
+90.8%
14.0%₱35.00₱25.80n/a3
Jul ’23₱16.60
₱29.27
+76.3%
14.0%₱35.00₱25.80n/a3
Jun ’23₱17.98
₱32.88
+82.9%
12.8%₱36.63₱27.00n/a3
May ’23₱18.40
₱32.88
+78.7%
12.8%₱36.63₱27.00n/a3
Apr ’23₱20.80
₱32.88
+58.1%
12.8%₱36.63₱27.00n/a3
Mar ’23₱20.10
₱30.08
+49.6%
27.1%₱36.63₱18.60n/a3
Feb ’23₱25.00
₱30.03
+20.1%
27.0%₱36.50₱18.60n/a3
Jan ’23₱24.75
₱30.03
+21.3%
27.0%₱36.50₱18.60₱19.103
Dec ’22₱23.80
₱30.03
+26.2%
27.0%₱36.50₱18.60₱20.303
Nov ’22₱26.50
₱30.53
+15.2%
27.9%₱38.00₱18.60₱16.343
Oct ’22₱18.48
₱18.31
-0.9%
1.9%₱18.70₱17.95₱13.644
Sep ’22₱18.20
₱18.31
+0.6%
1.9%₱18.70₱17.95₱15.044
Aug ’22₱16.20
₱18.06
+11.5%
2.2%₱18.70₱17.60₱15.344
Jul ’22₱18.48
₱18.06
-2.3%
2.2%₱18.70₱17.60₱16.604
Jun ’22₱14.20
₱18.06
+27.2%
2.2%₱18.70₱17.60₱17.984
May ’22₱14.74
₱17.74
+20.3%
4.2%₱18.70₱16.65₱18.404
Apr ’22₱16.08
₱18.06
+12.3%
5.2%₱19.00₱16.65₱20.804
Mar ’22₱15.36
₱17.54
+14.2%
5.5%₱19.00₱16.65₱20.104
Feb ’22₱14.70
₱17.79
+21.0%
5.6%₱19.00₱16.65₱25.005
Jan ’22₱15.98
₱16.69
+4.4%
7.8%₱19.00₱15.00₱24.755

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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