Manila Electric Future Growth

Future criteria checks 2/6

Manila Electric is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 6.2% and 3.3% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 5.9% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 27.4% in 3 years.

Key information

6.2%

Earnings growth rate

5.9%

EPS growth rate

Electric Utilities earnings growth	14.6%
Revenue growth rate	3.3%
Future return on equity	27.4%
Analyst coverage	Good
Last updated	08 Nov 2024

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

PSE:MER - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (PHP Millions)
Date	Revenue	Earnings	Free Cash Flow	Cash from Op	Avg. No. Analysts
12/31/2026	507,621	50,917	37,094	76,958	6
12/31/2025	484,436	44,256	33,334	66,929	8
12/31/2024	488,117	43,684	31,932	62,277	5
9/30/2024	463,804	43,379	8,770	42,761	N/A
6/30/2024	456,269	42,611	43,662	72,157	N/A
3/31/2024	442,518	39,549	42,438	75,760	N/A
12/31/2023	443,612	38,023	29,037	57,974	N/A
9/30/2023	446,876	37,072	-1,604	40,675	N/A
6/30/2023	451,743	33,163	-27,374	14,644	N/A
3/31/2023	446,266	30,121	-29,316	11,987	N/A
12/31/2022	426,529	28,431	-17,014	25,182	N/A
9/30/2022	401,714	26,734	-8,877	20,544	N/A
6/30/2022	369,056	26,670	-1,692	26,644	N/A
3/31/2022	339,740	25,545	14,796	43,734	N/A
12/31/2021	318,547	23,498	15,945	43,181	N/A
9/30/2021	292,813	21,586	42,913	71,062	N/A
6/30/2021	282,147	19,421	40,094	66,958	N/A
3/31/2021	269,987	18,031	4,755	25,484	N/A
12/31/2020	275,304	16,316	9,314	29,872	N/A
9/30/2020	291,397	16,216	2,701	17,875	N/A
6/30/2020	295,616	18,122	5,032	21,073	N/A
3/31/2020	312,966	20,233	28,510	48,216	N/A
12/31/2019	318,315	23,285	22,191	42,176	N/A
9/30/2019	318,169	23,126	17,076	36,087	N/A
6/30/2019	318,863	23,051	19,405	36,929	N/A
3/31/2019	309,025	23,376	31,235	45,964	N/A
12/31/2018	304,454	23,017	27,128	40,562	N/A
9/30/2018	295,578	22,668	19,263	33,212	N/A
6/30/2018	292,068	21,856	N/A	35,645	N/A
3/31/2018	286,787	20,879	N/A	26,595	N/A
12/31/2017	282,556	20,384	N/A	28,385	N/A
9/30/2017	276,406	19,428	N/A	35,662	N/A
6/30/2017	269,409	18,909	N/A	32,709	N/A
3/31/2017	263,584	19,446	N/A	33,697	N/A
12/31/2016	257,181	19,176	N/A	35,351	N/A
9/30/2016	256,516	18,625	N/A	36,569	N/A
6/30/2016	253,195	18,119	N/A	36,598	N/A
3/31/2016	255,982	19,224	N/A	38,802	N/A
12/31/2015	258,399	19,098	N/A	41,683	N/A
9/30/2015	260,493	19,894	N/A	39,722	N/A
6/30/2015	268,176	20,163	N/A	35,245	N/A
3/31/2015	273,817	18,466	N/A	45,398	N/A
12/31/2014	266,336	18,053	N/A	37,495	N/A
9/30/2014	293,429	17,875	N/A	36,382	N/A
6/30/2014	289,106	17,407	N/A	38,332	N/A
3/31/2014	288,925	17,195	N/A	25,273	N/A
12/31/2013	298,636	17,211	N/A	37,144	N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: MER's forecast earnings growth (6.2% per year) is above the savings rate (5.3%).

Earnings vs Market: MER's earnings (6.2% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the PH market (12.1% per year).

High Growth Earnings: MER's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: MER's revenue (3.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the PH market (7.5% per year).

High Growth Revenue: MER's revenue (3.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: MER's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (27.4%)

Manila Electric Future Growth

Future criteria checks 2/6

Key information

Recent future growth updates

Price target increased by 9.5% to ₱471

Consensus EPS estimates increase by 11%

Consensus EPS estimates increase by 15%

Consensus EPS estimates increase by 19%

Consensus EPS estimates increase by 12%

Consensus EPS estimates increase by 19%

Recent updates

New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth

Third quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: ₱10.04 (vs ₱9.36 in 3Q 2023)

Price target increased by 9.5% to ₱471

Lead Independent Director recently bought ₱1.4m worth of stock

Lead Independent Director recently bought ₱964k worth of stock

Manila Electric Company Confirms the Receipts of Court's Decision on Civil Case No. 1039

Upcoming dividend of ₱10.30 per share

Now 21% overvalued after recent price rise

Chairman & CEO recently bought ₱2.0m worth of stock

Consensus EPS estimates increase by 11%

First half dividend of ₱10.30 announced

Second quarter 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations

Manila Electric Company Declares Interim Cash Dividend, Payable on September 23, 2024

Manila Electric Company Approves Appointment of Paul Jayson I. Ramos as Chief Investor Relations Officer of the Company Effective July 1, 2024

Consensus EPS estimates increase by 15%

Non Executive Director recently bought ₱1.4m worth of stock

Consensus EPS estimates increase by 19%

First quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: ₱8.51 (vs ₱7.16 in 1Q 2023)

Non Executive Director recently bought ₱3.6m worth of stock

Upcoming dividend of ₱11.24 per share

Insider recently bought ₱730k worth of stock

Final dividend increased to ₱11.24

Manila Electric Company Announces Declaration of Cash Dividends, Payable on April 24, 2024

New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth

Full year 2023 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind

Manila Electric Company to Report Fiscal Year 2023 Results on Feb 26, 2024

Non Executive Director recently bought ₱3.6m worth of stock

Non Executive Director recently bought ₱3.6m worth of stock

Manila Electric Company, Annual General Meeting, May 28, 2024

Manila Electric Company Announces Clarification About Motions for Reconsideration Filed by the Energy Regulatory Commission and the National Association of Electricity Consumers for Reforms Inc

Non Executive Director recently sold ₱3.9m worth of stock

Manila Electric Company Announces Resignation of Frederick Dy Go as Director, Effective January 8, 2024

Manila Electric Company Approves Executive Changes, Effective January 1, 2024

Lead Independent Director recently bought ₱4.9m worth of stock

Manila Electric Company Appoints Marilene P. Tayag as Vice President and Chief Information Security Officer, Effective January 1, 2024

Consensus EPS estimates increase by 12%

Third quarter 2023 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations

Insider recently bought ₱500k worth of stock

Manila Electric Company Appoints Marilene P. Tayag as Chief Information Security Officer Effective on November 16, 2023

Executive Director recently bought ₱1.7m worth of stock

Non Executive Director recently bought ₱17m worth of stock

Upcoming dividend of ₱8.52 per share at 5.6% yield

On-Us Solutions Inc entered in a share purchase agreement to acquire eSAKAY, INC from Manila Electric Company (PSE:MER) for PHP 87.4 million.

Upcoming dividend of ₱8.52 per share at 4.8% yield

Consensus EPS estimates increase by 19%

Manila Electric Company Approves Interim Cash Dividend, Payable on September 14, 2023

Second quarter 2023 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations

Manila Electric Company Announces Management Changes

Consensus EPS estimates increase by 14%

First quarter 2023 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations

Upcoming dividend of ₱11.03 per share at 5.4% yield

Consensus EPS estimates increase by 12%, revenue downgraded

Full year 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations

Insider recently bought ₱286k worth of stock

Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop

Manila Electric Company, Annual General Meeting, May 30, 2023

Less than half of directors are independent

Third quarter 2022 earnings released: EPS: ₱5.89 (vs ₱5.83 in 3Q 2021)

Manila Electric Company Announces Resignation of Maria Carmela T. Migriño as Chief Information Security Officer, Effective November 1, 2022

Manila Electric Company Updates on Energy Regulatory Commission Decision on Power Supply Agreements with South Premiere Power Corporation and Sam Miguel Energy Corporation

Non Executive Director recently bought ₱4.6m worth of stock

Upcoming dividend of ₱5.81 per share

First VP recently bought ₱978k worth of stock

Second quarter 2022 earnings released: EPS: ₱6.70 (vs ₱4.98 in 2Q 2021)

Manila Electric Company Approves Declaration of Interim Cash Dividends, Payable on September 14, 2022

Non Executive Director recently bought ₱1.8m worth of stock

Less than half of directors are independent

Full year 2021 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations

Insider recently sold ₱935k worth of stock