Cosco Capital (PSE:COSCO) - Share price, News & Analysis

COSCO fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	5/6
Future Growth	1/6
Past Performance	4/6
Financial Health	6/6
Dividends	3/6

COSCO Stock Overview

Cosco Capital, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in retail, real estate, liquor distribution, oil and mining, and other specialty retail businesses in the Philippines.

Rewards

Trading at 86.1% below our estimate of its fair value

Revenue is forecast to grow 12.81% per year

Earnings have grown 7.9% per year over the past 5 years

Risk Analysis

Unstable dividend track record

Cosco Capital Competitors

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Cosco Capital
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	₱4.75
52 Week High	₱5.48
52 Week Low	₱4.60
Beta	0.49
1 Month Change	-3.65%
3 Month Change	-8.30%
1 Year Change	-3.85%
3 Year Change	-32.43%
5 Year Change	-41.65%
Change since IPO	126.24%

Shareholder Returns

	COSCO	PH Consumer Retailing	PH Market
7D	-1.0%	-4.2%	-4.6%
1Y	-3.8%	-41.8%	3.2%

Return vs Industry: COSCO exceeded the PH Consumer Retailing industry which returned -41.8% over the past year.

Return vs Market: COSCO underperformed the PH Market which returned 3.2% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is COSCO's price volatile compared to industry and market?
COSCO volatility
COSCO Average Weekly Movement	3.2%
Consumer Retailing Industry Average Movement	5.7%
Market Average Movement	5.5%
10% most volatile stocks in PH Market	10.0%
10% least volatile stocks in PH Market	3.1%

Stable Share Price: COSCO is less volatile than 75% of PH stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 3% a week.

Volatility Over Time: COSCO's weekly volatility (3%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1988	11,373	Leonardo Dayao	https://www.coscocapital.com

Cosco Capital, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in retail, real estate, liquor distribution, oil and mining, and other specialty retail businesses in the Philippines. It operates through Grocery Retail, Specialty Retail, Liquor Distribution, Real Estate and Property Leasing, and Oil and Mining segments. The company operates 403 stores, including hypermarkets; supermarkets; extra; minimarts; 20 S&R warehouse clubs; and 46 S&R-quick-service restaurants.

Cosco Capital Fundamentals Summary

How do Cosco Capital's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
COSCO fundamental statistics
Market Cap	₱33.11b
Earnings (TTM)	₱6.41b
Revenue (TTM)	₱172.40b

5.2x

P/E Ratio

0.2x

P/S Ratio

Is COSCO overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
COSCO income statement (TTM)
Revenue	₱172.40b
Cost of Revenue	₱138.97b
Gross Profit	₱33.44b
Other Expenses	₱27.03b
Earnings	₱6.41b

Last Reported Earnings

Sep 30, 2021

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	0.92
Gross Margin	19.39%
Net Profit Margin	3.72%
Debt/Equity Ratio	10.5%

How did COSCO perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

2.5%

Current Dividend Yield

9%

Payout Ratio

Valuation

Is Cosco Capital undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PE vs Industry
PE vs Market
PEG Ratio
PB vs Industry

>50%

Undervalued compared to fair value

Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: COSCO (₱4.75) is trading below our estimate of fair value (₱34.15)

Significantly Below Fair Value: COSCO is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: COSCO is good value based on its PE Ratio (5.2x) compared to the PH Consumer Retailing industry average (16.5x).

PE vs Market: COSCO is good value based on its PE Ratio (5.2x) compared to the PH market (11.4x).

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate COSCO's PEG Ratio to determine if it is good value.

Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: COSCO is good value based on its PB Ratio (0.4x) compared to the PH Consumer Retailing industry average (1.4x).

Future Growth

How is Cosco Capital forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 1 analyst?

Future Growth Score

1/6

Future Growth Score 1/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

12.8%

Forecasted annual revenue growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: Insufficient data to determine if COSCO's forecast earnings growth is above the savings rate (4.9%).

Earnings vs Market: Insufficient data to determine if COSCO's earnings are forecast to grow faster than the PH market

High Growth Earnings: Insufficient data to determine if earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: COSCO's revenue (12.8% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the PH market (11.4% per year).

High Growth Revenue: COSCO's revenue (12.8% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: COSCO's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (10.2%).

Past Performance

How has Cosco Capital performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

4/6

Past Performance Score 4/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

7.9%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: COSCO has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: COSCO's current net profit margins (3.7%) are higher than last year (3.4%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: COSCO's earnings have grown by 7.9% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: COSCO's earnings growth over the past year (8.1%) exceeds its 5-year average (7.9% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: COSCO earnings growth over the past year (8.1%) underperformed the Consumer Retailing industry 47%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: COSCO's Return on Equity (9.3%) is considered low.

Financial Health

How is Cosco Capital's financial position?

Financial Health Score

6/6

Financial Health Score 6/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: COSCO's short term assets (₱81.2B) exceed its short term liabilities (₱12.9B).

Long Term Liabilities: COSCO's short term assets (₱81.2B) exceed its long term liabilities (₱44.3B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: COSCO has more cash than its total debt.

Reducing Debt: COSCO's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 15.7% to 10.5% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: COSCO's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (141.6%).

Interest Coverage: COSCO's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (8x coverage).

Balance Sheet

Dividend

What is Cosco Capital current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

2/6

Dividend Score 2/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

2.53%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: COSCO's dividend (2.53%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the PH market (1.47%).

High Dividend: COSCO's dividend (2.53%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the PH market (4.92%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Whilst dividend payments have been stable, COSCO has been paying a dividend for less than 10 years.

Growing Dividend: COSCO's dividend payments have increased, but the company has only paid a dividend for 7 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its low payout ratio (8.8%), COSCO's dividend payments are thoroughly covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its low cash payout ratio (6.4%), COSCO's dividend payments are thoroughly covered by cash flows.

Next Steps

Explore strong dividend paying companies in the Consumer Retailing industry.

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

8.3yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Leonardo Dayao (77 yo)

11.92yrs

Tenure

₱3,000,000

Compensation

Mr. Leonardo B. Dayao has been the President of Cosco Capital, Inc. since June 2010. Mr. Dayao is President of Fertuna Holdings Corp. Mr. Dayao serves as Vice-President of Ellimac Prime Holdings, Inc., Bel...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Insufficient data to establish whether Leonardo's total compensation is reasonable compared to companies of similar size in the PH market.

Compensation vs Earnings: Insufficient data to compare Leonardo's compensation with company performance.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: COSCO's management team is seasoned and experienced (8.3 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: COSCO's board of directors are considered experienced (8.9 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/05/16 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/05/16 00:00
Earnings	2021/09/30
Annual Earnings	2020/12/31