Briscoe Group Valuation

Is BGP undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of BGP when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: BGP (NZ$5.5) is trading above our estimate of fair value (NZ$5.21)

Significantly Below Fair Value: BGP is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for BGP?

Key metric: As BGP is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for BGP. This is calculated by dividing BGP's market cap by their current earnings.
What is BGP's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio16.4x
EarningsNZ$74.68m
Market CapNZ$1.23b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does BGP's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for BGP vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average32.7x
TRA Turners Automotive Group
14.1x9.4%NZ$474.9m
HLG Hallenstein Glasson Holdings
12.3x4.8%NZ$425.9m
CMO Colonial Motor
47.3xn/aNZ$214.5m
WHS Warehouse Group
57x34.1%NZ$348.8m
BGP Briscoe Group
16.4x3.4%NZ$1.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: BGP is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.4x) compared to the peer average (32.7x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does BGP's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Oceanian Specialty Retail Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
BGP 16.4xIndustry Avg. 16.8xNo. of Companies5PE01020304050+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: BGP is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.4x) compared to the Oceanic Specialty Retail industry average (16.8x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is BGP's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

BGP PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio16.4x
Fair PE Ratio18.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: BGP is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.5x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst BGP forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentNZ$5.50
NZ$5.23
-5.0%
0.5%NZ$5.25NZ$5.20n/a2
Dec ’25NZ$5.35
NZ$5.23
-2.3%
0.5%NZ$5.25NZ$5.20n/a2
Nov ’25NZ$4.97
NZ$5.28
+6.1%
1.4%NZ$5.35NZ$5.20n/a2
Oct ’25NZ$4.81
NZ$5.28
+9.7%
1.4%NZ$5.35NZ$5.20n/a2
Sep ’25NZ$4.43
NZ$5.13
+15.7%
1.5%NZ$5.20NZ$5.05n/a2
Aug ’25NZ$4.42
NZ$4.92
+11.3%
5.7%NZ$5.20NZ$4.64n/a2
Jul ’25NZ$4.10
NZ$4.92
+20.0%
5.7%NZ$5.20NZ$4.64n/a2
Jun ’25NZ$4.22
NZ$4.92
+16.6%
5.7%NZ$5.20NZ$4.64n/a2
May ’25NZ$4.45
NZ$4.90
+10.0%
5.2%NZ$5.15NZ$4.64n/a2
Apr ’25NZ$4.57
NZ$4.90
+7.1%
5.2%NZ$5.15NZ$4.64n/a2
Mar ’25NZ$4.51
NZ$4.87
+8.0%
4.7%NZ$5.10NZ$4.64n/a2
Feb ’25NZ$4.52
NZ$4.70
+3.9%
1.2%NZ$4.75NZ$4.64n/a2
Jan ’25NZ$4.47
NZ$4.70
+5.0%
1.2%NZ$4.75NZ$4.64n/a2
Dec ’24NZ$4.60
NZ$4.70
+2.1%
1.2%NZ$4.75NZ$4.64NZ$5.352
Nov ’24NZ$4.47
NZ$4.77
+6.7%
2.7%NZ$4.90NZ$4.64NZ$4.972
Oct ’24NZ$4.70
NZ$4.77
+1.5%
2.7%NZ$4.90NZ$4.64NZ$4.812
Sep ’24NZ$4.62
NZ$4.77
+3.2%
2.7%NZ$4.90NZ$4.64NZ$4.432
Aug ’24NZ$4.70
NZ$4.77
+1.5%
2.7%NZ$4.90NZ$4.64NZ$4.422
Jul ’24NZ$4.11
NZ$4.77
+16.1%
2.7%NZ$4.90NZ$4.64NZ$4.102
Jun ’24NZ$4.50
NZ$4.77
+6.0%
2.7%NZ$4.90NZ$4.64NZ$4.222
May ’24NZ$4.48
NZ$4.93
+9.9%
0.5%NZ$4.95NZ$4.90NZ$4.452
Apr ’24NZ$4.57
NZ$4.93
+7.8%
0.5%NZ$4.95NZ$4.90NZ$4.572
Mar ’24NZ$4.76
NZ$4.83
+1.4%
1.6%NZ$4.90NZ$4.75NZ$4.512
Feb ’24NZ$4.61
NZ$4.83
+4.7%
1.6%NZ$4.90NZ$4.75NZ$4.522

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.


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