Results: Winton Land Limited Beat Earnings Expectations And Analysts Now Have New Forecasts

The annual results for Winton Land Limited (NZSE:WIN) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. Revenues of NZ$155m fell slightly short of expectations, but earnings were a definite bright spot, with statutory per-share profits of NZ$0.034 an impressive 452% ahead of estimates. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analyst is forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analyst is expecting for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Winton Land's solitary analyst is for revenues of NZ$159.7m in 2026. This would reflect a satisfactory 2.7% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to plunge 62% to NZ$0.013 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analyst had been anticipated revenues of NZ$197.8m and earnings per share (EPS) of NZ$0.055 in 2026. Indeed, we can see that the analyst is a lot more bearish about Winton Land's prospects following the latest results, administering a real cut to revenue estimates and slashing their EPS estimates to boot.

See our latest analysis for Winton Land

What's most unexpected is that the consensus price target rose 6.7% to NZ$2.40, strongly implying the downgrade to forecasts is not expected to be more than a temporary blip.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Winton Land's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 2.7% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 8.8% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 10% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Winton Land.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analyst downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analyst believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have analyst estimates for Winton Land going out as far as 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Winton Land that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.