Stock Analysis

Shareholders in Oceania Healthcare (NZSE:OCA) have lost 56%, as stock drops 12% this past week

NZSE:OCA
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If you are building a properly diversified stock portfolio, the chances are some of your picks will perform badly. But the long term shareholders of Oceania Healthcare Limited (NZSE:OCA) have had an unfortunate run in the last three years. So they might be feeling emotional about the 60% share price collapse, in that time. The more recent news is of little comfort, with the share price down 23% in a year. Unfortunately the share price momentum is still quite negative, with prices down 16% in thirty days.

After losing 12% this past week, it's worth investigating the company's fundamentals to see what we can infer from past performance.

View our latest analysis for Oceania Healthcare

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During five years of share price growth, Oceania Healthcare moved from a loss to profitability. We would usually expect to see the share price rise as a result. So given the share price is down it's worth checking some other metrics too.

We note that, in three years, revenue has actually grown at a 8.4% annual rate, so that doesn't seem to be a reason to sell shares. It's probably worth investigating Oceania Healthcare further; while we may be missing something on this analysis, there might also be an opportunity.

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
NZSE:OCA Earnings and Revenue Growth February 21st 2024

This free interactive report on Oceania Healthcare's balance sheet strength is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

We've already covered Oceania Healthcare's share price action, but we should also mention its total shareholder return (TSR). Arguably the TSR is a more complete return calculation because it accounts for the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested), along with the hypothetical value of any discounted capital that have been offered to shareholders. Oceania Healthcare's TSR of was a loss of 56% for the 3 years. That wasn't as bad as its share price return, because it has paid dividends.

A Different Perspective

While the broader market lost about 1.2% in the twelve months, Oceania Healthcare shareholders did even worse, losing 22%. Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 6% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Take risks, for example - Oceania Healthcare has 2 warning signs (and 1 which shouldn't be ignored) we think you should know about.

We will like Oceania Healthcare better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on New Zealander exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Oceania Healthcare is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.