Stock Analysis

    Imagine Owning Abano Healthcare Group (NZSE:ABA) And Wondering If The 45% Share Price Slide Is Justified

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    While it may not be enough for some shareholders, we think it is good to see the Abano Healthcare Group Limited (NZSE:ABA) share price up 21% in a single quarter. But that cannot eclipse the less-than-impressive returns over the last three years. After all, the share price is down 45% in the last three years, significantly under-performing the market.

    See our latest analysis for Abano Healthcare Group

    To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

    Abano Healthcare Group saw its EPS decline at a compound rate of 40% per year, over the last three years. This fall in the EPS is worse than the 18% compound annual share price fall. This suggests that the market retains some optimism around long term earnings stability, despite past EPS declines.

    You can see below how EPS has changed over time.

    NZSE:ABA Past and Future Earnings, November 8th 2019
    NZSE:ABA Past and Future Earnings, November 8th 2019

    It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Abano Healthcare Group's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

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    What About Dividends?

    When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Abano Healthcare Group, it has a TSR of -34% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

    A Different Perspective

    While the broader market gained around 20% in the last year, Abano Healthcare Group shareholders lost 34% (even including dividends) . However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 3.5% per year over five years. We realise that Buffett has said investors should 'buy when there is blood on the streets', but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality businesses. Before forming an opinion on Abano Healthcare Group you might want to consider the cold hard cash it pays as a dividend. This free chart tracks its dividend over time.

    If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

    Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on NZ exchanges.

    We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

    If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.