Stock Analysis

Don't Buy Channel Infrastructure NZ Limited (NZSE:CHI) For Its Next Dividend Without Doing These Checks

NZSE:CHI
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Channel Infrastructure NZ Limited (NZSE:CHI) is about to trade ex-dividend in the next 4 days. Typically, the ex-dividend date is one business day before the record date which is the date on which a company determines the shareholders eligible to receive a dividend. The ex-dividend date is of consequence because whenever a stock is bought or sold, the trade takes at least two business day to settle. Meaning, you will need to purchase Channel Infrastructure NZ's shares before the 5th of September to receive the dividend, which will be paid on the 20th of September.

The company's next dividend payment will be NZ$0.049 per share, and in the last 12 months, the company paid a total of NZ$0.084 per share. Last year's total dividend payments show that Channel Infrastructure NZ has a trailing yield of 5.3% on the current share price of NZ$1.6. Dividends are an important source of income to many shareholders, but the health of the business is crucial to maintaining those dividends. We need to see whether the dividend is covered by earnings and if it's growing.

View our latest analysis for Channel Infrastructure NZ

Dividends are usually paid out of company profits, so if a company pays out more than it earned then its dividend is usually at greater risk of being cut. Channel Infrastructure NZ distributed an unsustainably high 136% of its profit as dividends to shareholders last year. Without extenuating circumstances, we'd consider the dividend at risk of a cut. A useful secondary check can be to evaluate whether Channel Infrastructure NZ generated enough free cash flow to afford its dividend. Channel Infrastructure NZ paid a dividend despite reporting negative free cash flow over the last twelve months. This may be due to heavy investment in the business, but this is still suboptimal from a dividend sustainability perspective.

It's disappointing to see that the dividend was not covered by profits, but cash is more important from a dividend sustainability perspective, and Channel Infrastructure NZ fortunately did generate enough cash to fund its dividend. If executives were to continue paying more in dividends than the company reported in profits, we'd view this as a warning sign. Very few companies are able to sustainably pay dividends larger than their reported earnings.

Click here to see the company's payout ratio, plus analyst estimates of its future dividends.

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NZSE:CHI Historic Dividend August 31st 2023

Have Earnings And Dividends Been Growing?

Businesses with shrinking earnings are tricky from a dividend perspective. If business enters a downturn and the dividend is cut, the company could see its value fall precipitously. Readers will understand then, why we're concerned to see Channel Infrastructure NZ's earnings per share have dropped 23% a year over the past five years. Ultimately, when earnings per share decline, the size of the pie from which dividends can be paid, shrinks.

Channel Infrastructure NZ also issued more than 5% of its market cap in new stock during the past year, which we feel is likely to hurt its dividend prospects in the long run. It's hard to grow dividends per share when a company keeps creating new shares.

Many investors will assess a company's dividend performance by evaluating how much the dividend payments have changed over time. Since the start of our data, 10 years ago, Channel Infrastructure NZ has lifted its dividend by approximately 1.8% a year on average.

The Bottom Line

From a dividend perspective, should investors buy or avoid Channel Infrastructure NZ? It's looking like an unattractive opportunity, with its earnings per share declining, while, paying out an uncomfortably high percentage of both its profits (136%) and cash flow as dividends. Unless there are grounds to believe a turnaround is imminent, this is one of the least attractive dividend stocks under this analysis. Overall it doesn't look like the most suitable dividend stock for a long-term buy and hold investor.

So if you're still interested in Channel Infrastructure NZ despite it's poor dividend qualities, you should be well informed on some of the risks facing this stock. In terms of investment risks, we've identified 2 warning signs with Channel Infrastructure NZ and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

If you're in the market for strong dividend payers, we recommend checking our selection of top dividend stocks.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Channel Infrastructure NZ is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.