Elmera Group (OB:ELMRA) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of ELMRA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

ELMRA (NOK22.7) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (NOK140.54)

ELMRA fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	5/6
Future Growth	3/6
Past Performance	2/6
Financial Health	5/6
Dividends	3/6

ELMRA Stock Overview

Rewards

Trading at 83.8% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 5.05% per year

Risk Analysis

Dividend of 15.42% is not well covered by earnings

Profit margins (1.8%) are lower than last year (5.1%)

Elmera Group Competitors

Sichuan Energy Investment Development

SEHK:1713

HK$1.9b

Odas Elektrik Üretim Sanayi Ticaret

IBSE:ODAS

₺5.7b

Ayen Enerji

IBSE:AYEN

₺5.8b

Genie Energy

NYSE:GNE

US$263.8m

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Elmera Group
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	kr22.70
52 Week High	kr57.95
52 Week Low	kr17.13
Beta	0.84
1 Month Change	15.05%
3 Month Change	3.28%
1 Year Change	-53.96%
3 Year Change	-50.11%
5 Year Change	n/a
Change since IPO	-26.77%

Recent News & Updates

May 07

Some Analysts Just Cut Their Elmera Group ASA (OB:ELMRA) Estimates

Market forces rained on the parade of Elmera Group ASA ( OB:ELMRA ) shareholders today, when the analysts downgraded...

Shareholder Returns

	ELMRA	NO Electric Utilities	NO Market
7D	3.8%	0.6%	1.3%
1Y	-54.0%	-3.7%	9.3%

Return vs Industry: ELMRA underperformed the Norwegian Electric Utilities industry which returned -3% over the past year.

Return vs Market: ELMRA underperformed the Norwegian Market which returned 9.8% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is ELMRA's price volatile compared to industry and market?
ELMRA volatility
ELMRA Average Weekly Movement	5.9%
Electric Utilities Industry Average Movement	5.2%
Market Average Movement	6.7%
10% most volatile stocks in NO Market	12.4%
10% least volatile stocks in NO Market	3.7%

Stable Share Price: ELMRA is not significantly more volatile than the rest of Norwegian stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 6% a week.

Volatility Over Time: ELMRA's weekly volatility (6%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
2001	478	Rolf Barmen	https://www.fjordkraft.no

Elmera Group ASA, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the purchase, sale, and portfolio management of electrical power to households, private and public companies, and municipalities in Norway. It operates through Consumer, Business, and Nordic segments. The Consumer segment sells electrical power and related services to private consumers.

Elmera Group Fundamentals Summary

How do Elmera Group's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
ELMRA fundamental statistics
Market Cap	kr2.47b
Earnings (TTM)	kr318.77m
Revenue (TTM)	kr17.83b

7.7x

P/E Ratio

0.1x

P/S Ratio

Is ELMRA overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
ELMRA income statement (TTM)
Revenue	kr17.83b
Cost of Revenue	kr16.05b
Gross Profit	kr1.78b
Other Expenses	kr1.46b
Earnings	kr318.77m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

Aug 18, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)	2.93
Gross Margin	9.99%
Net Profit Margin	1.79%
Debt/Equity Ratio	46.4%

How did ELMRA perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

15.4%

Current Dividend Yield

125%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is ELMRA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ELMRA?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for ELMRA. This is calculated by dividing ELMRA's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is ELMRA's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	kr2.47b

ELMRA key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.02x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	0.5x
PEG Ratio	1.5x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ELMRA's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

ELMRA PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for ELMRA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	8.1x
1713 Sichuan Energy Investment Development	6x	n/a	HK$1.9b
ODAS Odas Elektrik Üretim Sanayi Ticaret	5x	1.4%	₺5.7b
AYEN Ayen Enerji	17.5x	n/a	₺5.8b
GNE Genie Energy	3.9x	n/a	US$263.8m
ELMRA Elmera Group	7.7x	5.1%	kr2.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ELMRA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.7x) compared to the peer average (8.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ELMRA's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Electric Utilities Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ELMRA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.7x) compared to the European Electric Utilities industry average (11x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ELMRA's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ELMRA PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	7.7x
Fair PE Ratio	25.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ELMRA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.4x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ELMRA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ELMRA (NOK22.7) is trading below our estimate of fair value (NOK140.54)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ELMRA is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Future Growth

How is Elmera Group forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 2 analysts?

Future Growth Score

3/6

Future Growth Score 3/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

5.1%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: ELMRA's forecast earnings growth (5.1% per year) is above the savings rate (1.1%).

Earnings vs Market: ELMRA's earnings (5.1% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the Norwegian market (0.2% per year).

High Growth Earnings: ELMRA's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: ELMRA's revenue (1% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the Norwegian market (-1% per year).

High Growth Revenue: ELMRA's revenue (1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: ELMRA's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (17.1%).

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Past Performance

How has Elmera Group performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

2/6

Past Performance Score 2/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

9.1%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: ELMRA has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: ELMRA's current net profit margins (1.8%) are lower than last year (5.1%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: ELMRA's earnings have grown by 9.1% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: ELMRA's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: ELMRA had negative earnings growth (-8.9%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Electric Utilities industry average (6.5%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: ELMRA's Return on Equity (15.7%) is considered low.

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Financial Health

How is Elmera Group's financial position?

Financial Health Score

5/6

Financial Health Score 5/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: ELMRA's short term assets (NOK7.9B) exceed its short term liabilities (NOK7.3B).

Long Term Liabilities: ELMRA's short term assets (NOK7.9B) exceed its long term liabilities (NOK1.8B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: ELMRA has more cash than its total debt.

Reducing Debt: Insufficient data to determine if ELMRA's debt to equity ratio has reduced over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: ELMRA's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (152.8%).

Interest Coverage: ELMRA's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (18.7x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Elmera Group current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

3/6

Dividend Score 3/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

15.42%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: ELMRA's dividend (15.42%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the Norwegian market (2.64%).

High Dividend: ELMRA's dividend (15.42%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the Norwegian market (6.78%)

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Whilst dividend payments have been stable, ELMRA has been paying a dividend for less than 10 years.

Growing Dividend: ELMRA's dividend payments have increased, but the company has only paid a dividend for 3 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its high payout ratio (125.5%), ELMRA's dividend payments are not well covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its reasonably low cash payout ratio (28%), ELMRA's dividend payments are well covered by cash flows.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

3.5yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Rolf Barmen (58 yo)

9.58yrs

Tenure

kr5,371,000

Compensation

Mr. Rolf Barmen has been the Chief Executive Officer at Elmera Group ASA (formerly known as Fjordkraft Holding ASA) since 2013 and serves as its President. Mr. Barmen has been Chairman of Trondheim Kraft A...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Rolf's total compensation ($USD560.34K) is about average for companies of similar size in the Norwegian market ($USD466.78K).

Compensation vs Earnings: Rolf's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: ELMRA's management team is considered experienced (3.5 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: ELMRA's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 1.3 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/08/12 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/08/12 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31